ISW: Russian army is trying to completely encircle Toretsk and eliminate the Ukrainian pocket

Russian troops are trying to break through Toretsk. They need control of this city to develop an offensive towards Konstantinovka. However, according to analysts, the offensive on this section of the front could take years. This is stated in a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Analysts note that Ukrainian military observer Konstantin Mashovets stated on April 14 that units of the Russian 150th Motorized Rifle Division (8th Combined Arms Army of the Southern Military District of Russia) had recently captured Alexandropol, Panteleimonovka, and Valentinovka, villages southwest of Toretsk.

According to Mashovets, Russian forces have also pushed Ukrainian troops out of positions east of the H-20 Donetsk-Constantinople highway. On April 13 and 14, Russian forces also claimed to have pushed Ukrainian forces out of positions east of the H-20 highway, captured Valentinovka, and were advancing toward Sukhaya Balka (north of Valentinovka).

ISW analysts recall that in February 2025 the Russians have moved parts of the 8th Army from the Kurakhovskoye direction to the Toretskoye and eastern areas of the Pokrovskoye direction. The Russians probably intended to use this reinforcement of their troops to break through Toretsk and advance towards Konstantinovka along the T-0516 Toretsk-Konstantinovka route or parallel to it.

Since then, Russian forces have been advancing slightly along the front line between Vozdvizhenka (northeast of Pokrovsk) and Sukhaya Balka in February and March 2025. Since early April 2025, however, the Russians have made more significant tactical progress near Kalinovo and along the Sukhaya Balka-Alexandropol line.

ISW has previously assessed that Russian forces may attempt to eliminate the Ukrainian "pocket" southwest of Toretsk to level their southern flank before the planned advance towards Konstantinovka. Recent Russian troop movements and tactical actions confirm this assessment, the analysts' report states.