US Secretary of State Marco Rubio's refusal to participate in the London meeting dedicated to the Ukrainian peace process is not just a change in schedule. It is a clear sign of a crisis in communication between Kiev and Washington - and the beginning of a new stage in the international game around the war in Ukraine, writes the BBC's Ukraine correspondent Sviatoslav Khomenko.
Ukraine can still say "NO" to the US
The fact that the talks in London collapsed before they even began at the highest level shows that Kiev has not lost its ability to refuse, even when pressure comes from its key ally. The plan proposed by the Trump administration does not contain real security guarantees, provides for territorial concessions and de facto reflects the Russian goals presented at the beginning of the so-called "special military operation".
The adoption of such a scheme would be not just a geopolitical defeat, but a personal political collapse for President Zelensky, who risks internal destabilization if he agrees to conditions without clear benefits for Ukraine.
The United States: temporary withdrawal or strategic retreat?
The big question now is whether the United States will truly distance itself from the "Ukrainian issue", which would be Donald Trump's first foreign policy defeat, or will it return with a more balanced proposal.
Rubio's refusal can also be interpreted as a demonstration of disappointment on the American side. But the very fact that unofficial channels with Moscow remain active suggests that the White House has not finished the game.
Europe faces a test: will it take America's place?
The London meeting was also supposed to answer another question: does Europe have the capacity to act without the United States? So far, there are no signs that Paris, Berlin or Brussels are ready to replace Washington as the leading factor in military and diplomatic support for Kiev. But the possibility of such a scenario is increasing — especially if the United States chooses a course of limited involvement or pressure for a ceasefire at all costs.
It is not excluded that key talks on the future of security in Europe will take place not in London or Riyadh, but... at the funeral of Pope Francis in Rome, where the presence of Trump, Zelensky and European leaders is expected. History loves symbolism — and such occasions sometimes become the scene of unexpected geopolitical twists.
Moscow: formulas without an end
Even with a hypothetical Ukrainian agreement to Trump's proposals, there is no guarantee that Russia will also answer with "yes". The Kremlin has repeatedly used the "we are for, but..." approach, followed by a new list of conditions - from the complete demilitarization of Ukraine to the renunciation of four regions. Therefore, without clear, bilateral and internationally guaranteed conditions, any deal risks being temporary and fragile.