Trump vs. Biden for the second time… This is the most anticipated US presidential battle in November. If Trump wins, we will once again hear the slogan: "Make America Great". Biden wants to save the United States from Trump. Who will end the war in Ukraine… Prof. Iskren Ivanov, political scientist, expert in international security and conflict management and professor at Sofia University, spoke to FAKTI.
- Mr. Ivanov, second match between Biden and Trump! One unpredictable and the other doesn't remember when his tenure started. What should we expect?
- From here on, two scenarios are emerging for the development of the presidential elections in the USA. The first is a win for Trump, which seems realistic amid rising support for the former US president. And yet, the rise of Trump depends on two things: the support of the influential lobbies in America and the wing of the puritans who see in him the political messiah who will “bring the US out of hell”. The second scenario is a surprise victory for Biden, which is equally realistic since the US president is elected indirectly and the key role belongs to the electoral college. In other words, the plot of 2016 could be repeated, when the popular vote was on the side of Hillary Clinton, but the delegates in the college handed the victory to Trump. Such a development of events is possible only if the difference between the two candidates continues to be so small. However, which of these two scenarios will come to pass – it's too early to talk about that.
- There have been comments that by the time of the election, Biden may give up… How much of an option is this?
- This would be a very short-sighted move on the part of the Democrats. There is such a precedent in the person of the late President Lyndon Johnson. For the Democrats to make such a move, they really need to field a candidate who literally captivates voters. There is none at this stage and there is not likely to be in the next few months. Also, let's imagine how this would look in the eyes of Americans – that their president abdicated responsibility. This will throw the country into chaos. I don't believe Biden himself will do it either, unless he is put under political pressure from his fellow party members.
- Biden and Trump are being investigated by special prosecutors… Is this the highest democracy – object of checks to go to the presidential chair?
- As I have stated my position on other occasions – liberal democracy is currently in crisis due to the sharp contraction of the middle class in developed countries. This enables powerful circles of oligarchs to influence political processes in large countries and leads to pathologies like the one you share. It is quite a separate issue that the American judicial system often has a habit of turning elections into a show. This appeals to the voters, who see in their favorites players to bet on. When the Trump trials began, he vowed to get revenge on the Democrats, and we're seeing it in the form of the charges prosecutors are bringing against Biden and his son Hunter in connection with their alleged business assets in Ukraine. But I assure you that no self-respecting federal judge would vote for these charges. When it comes down to it, the US Supreme Court always tries to keep transparency in democratic procedures – and as we have seen in this spirit allowed Donald Trump to continue in the election race.
- Both have a charge that is the same for them - for exporting classified information. Does the voter get excited about such technical things?
- Of course he's excited. What Americans paradoxically do not care about is US foreign policy if America is not at war. Then everyone unites around the head of state, regardless of who he is. But when it comes to leaking state secrets or treason, the social stigma attached to the offender is enormous, especially if he is a politician. American society does not tolerate such wrongdoings, and an example of this is the well-known Watergate affair, which ruined Richard Nixon's political image. Ultimately, to avoid being impeached, he resigned. The situation is similar with many corrupt presidents since the founding years of the United States, whom Americans have lost their trust in.
- How does Trump gain supporters and what does Biden do?
- Trump's golden trump cards are his rhetoric and energy. The American voter likes politics to be like a show, where logically the winner is the one who can better entertain the audience. Trump does, and that's why support for him is growing. Yet, the main reason for Trump's rise is not his staff's strategy, but the many processes that have gone against him. His public arrest, his summons to the courtroom, his questioning by the prosecutor – all of which made him a martyr in the eyes of his own constituents. Before those campaigns, Florida's governor – Republican Ron DeSantis was the favorite, but after the trials against Trump began, the former president's approval rating skyrocketed. Biden is winning over voters with traditional Democratic rhetoric that targets LGBT minorities, socially disadvantaged voters and advocates of free healthcare in America. Despite his advanced age, most young Americans see him as the only viable option for America to continue to function as the land of the free and the brave with a little more concern for ordinary people. His vice president – Kamala Harris, also has credit for his rating, being a representative of two key electoral groups in the US – women and African-Americans.
- At the same time, we heard Putin say he would work with both of them, but Trump was more unpredictable. What does this mean in diplomatic language…
- This means “I will deal with both of them because I have a nuclear weapon, and the question is how”. And, of course, it means that Putin sees Trump as an opportunity to win in Ukraine, and Biden – as an obstacle to this. If Trump wins the presidential election, he will not concede to Putin, but only on those strategic issues that concern the United States. We see that with regard to Ukraine and NATO, things are different. If Biden wins, US policy towards Russia is unlikely to change.
- Biden loses his memory, but the Democrats nominate him. How to explain it…
- You know that when a country is flourishing, there are many candidates to lead it, but they sharply decrease when it is in crisis. The situation is the same in the US. If the situation is like this with Trump, because of the numerous campaigns against him, with Biden, things are mirrored. Democrats know that the next US president will have to lead the country at a key time when the possibility of direct military confrontation between NATO and Russia is growing. So far there is no such danger, but you have heard the words of Russian President Vladimir Putin that Russia is ready for nuclear war. Some call this a bluff, but recent official US intelligence reports do not rule out Putin pushing the red button if he feels pushed to the wall. The big question is how will the US respond and who will bear the (geo)political responsibility for the consequences? This is why no one wants to be in Biden's place, because if for Trump the solution is a large-scale reform of NATO with the aim of refocusing on containing China, for the Democrats Russia is a priority.
- Eight months until the elections is a long time, but if the elections were today, how are the two positioned?
- Today, the forces of the two candidates are equal. If the election were held today, the fate of the White House would be decided by the Electoral College, not the voters. Whenever there is such a wavering, the election results depend on the will of the delegates. Trump is leading among voters, but there are plenty of delegates from the Northeast who would convince their colleagues to vote for Biden. Not because they don't trust Trump, but because they find him unpredictable. Reverse logic also important – many Biden voters may not support him because they see Trump as a more energetic and action-ready politician. In any case, however, these elections will be key not only for the future of American democracy, but also for the status of the United States as a global actor.