Office, but to whom… This is the big question of the last days. Who will be foreign minister is an even bigger question… And the parliament, which according to the new changes in the Constitution had to work to monitor the ministers, voted for a break in the election campaign. Where are we going and what to expect on the political scene… Emil Sokolov - doctor of history from the University of Exeter, historian, political analyst and teacher of Bulgarian and world history spoke to FAKTI.
- Mr. Sokolov, if you had to describe what is happening in the country in a few sentences, what would they be?
- GERB and DPS are adamant that no reforms in the judicial system, regulators and services should be allowed, because they will weaken their influence. To prevent this, they activated their "sleeper cells" in services, the Ministry of the Interior and the prosecutor's office, to start a black campaign that they hope will depress enough people so that on June 9 they can cement their power. Right now, it's an election campaign that has one goal – widespread frustration and apathy. They convince us that our statehood is glued with chewing gum and that is the best.
- Political or constitutional crisis… What are we facing and which one is more suitable?
- The crisis is political first and then everything else. There is no constitutional crisis at this stage. We will see what the opinion of the Constitutional Court will be regarding the changes in the Constitution. More dangerous is the political crisis, as it continues from 2020. The reason is one – the refusal of GERB to “disengage“ from the power.
And behind GERB, of course, DPS is always visible.
The changes in the Constitution allow for more decentralization in theory, but in practice we saw how the strong players in the form of GERB, DPS and the president once again molded a highly politicized cabinet. One could even argue that this is “Borisov“ 4 with Peevski's quota in justice and the Ministry of the Interior, as well as representatives of the presidential institution.
- How independent does the office seem to you… Boyko Borisov and Dimitar Glavchev at the same time demanded the replacement of the foreign minister with Daniel Mitov, who refused, however. And it's a coincidence, isn't it…
- The situation is ridiculous. The leader of GERB asked a member of parliament from GERB, the current acting prime minister, whom he allegedly had not seen for 10 years, to make the deputy leader of GERB foreign minister. The Foreign Ministry was also a dividing point in the rotation negotiations, when GERB insisted that Mrs. Maria-Gabriel be Prime Minister and Foreign Minister. This is only done in third world countries. Mr. Glavchev now repeats the same mantra. I do not rule out that Mr. Borisov wants the Foreign Ministry for himself in order to clean up his image and explain to our Western partners why he threw the country into another early election. And the question, in fact, is why Mr. Peevski is more important than anything else for Borisov and GERB.
- What has the figure of the president been reduced to – to strike seals or still have some executive power?
- The president has a choice of which figure to invite as prime minister, and as we see now, he can block a change of ministers in the caretaker government. This scenario is more acceptable than what we witnessed under Radev's previous two caretaker governments. Signing the contract with Botash for 13 years and bringing Bulgaria into such a disadvantageous agreement is just one of many examples of why the power of the presidential institution had to be limited.
- And yet, Stefan Dimitrov remains currently the foreign minister – Is this a deal or a compromise between Radev and Glavchev?
- It's both. The president keeps the foreign minister, and GERB half-heartedly said something about Botash. Borisov and Radev protect each other while protecting foreign interests in the energy sector and beyond. This is the typical face of Boris' Euro-Atlanticism. I suspect that Stefan Dimitrov will try to present Mr. Borisov in a good light. It's part of the deal.
- At the same time, the opposition wants a vote of confidence for the caretaker government despite all doubts that this is possible under the Constitution. A measured political move or are we already in a campaign?
- We have been campaigning for several weeks. The vote of no confidence is entirely a PR move, with which BSP, ITN and “Vazrazhdane” they want to show that they are against the current caretaker government. It is interesting how, during the formation of this cabinet, during the consultations with the president, it was said that this was a PP-DB government. Before long, however, the above-mentioned also fell under his blows and had to quickly see the truth that this is the office of the GERB-DP(S).
- Did the scandals in the Ministry of Internal Affairs and customs displace the “Notary” case, or is this part of the big political puzzle?
- I don't know if they displaced, but they blurred the scandalous revelations about abuses and trading in influence in the judicial system. This is the desired effect, as I said at the beginning. To make everything seem desperate and indecisive and to put people off voting on June 9.
- Do you expect fair elections on June 9?
- I expect that there will be a strong corporate and bought vote. Kalin Stoyanov's Ministry of Internal Affairs showed how it works in the local elections. It depends only on us, the citizens, how fair these elections will be. If voter turnout is high, it will reduce the impact of any manipulation. If it is low, someone else will decide for us.