Will there be elections again… At least that's how things are going after Rosen Zhelyazkov's cabinet did not happen, and GERB-SDS announced that they will not support a government with another mandate. In the DPS, not all MPs listen to Delyan Peevski, but the group of “Velichie” fell apart. What to expect… The political scientist Prof. Milena Stefanova spoke to FACTS.
- Prof. Stefanova, GERB-SDS did not form a cabinet, DPS is shaking, and “Velichie” is falling apart. Is this what it means to do politics in Bulgaria?
- In the current situation, this is clearly part of politics. The party system is shaking because it has not been able to provide stable government for a long time. At least two processes come to the fore. The first is related to the emergence of new party and coalition formations. Politicians try to offer voters something new because it is perceived that there is a niche for it. The second process brings to light internal party contradictions and conflicts.
We – political scientists, we try to find an explanation within political theory, but we are hampered because it turns out that “creativity“ of politicians goes out of the matrix.
The classic approach to forming a majority and casting a government requires negotiation, agreement, mutual trust and support, and then a management program to be provided with the human resources and finances to carry it out. This is clearly too far from a possible reality today. GERB-SDS have the largest support from the decreasing number of voters who vote, but this is not enough. They are also disliked by the majority of the other parties and coalitions represented in the parliament. DPS is a classic unwelcome partner, for many reasons. BSP is in crisis, ITN are a small party with strange views on politics, “Revival” is unacceptable as a governing partner due to its extreme pro-Russian and pro-Putin positions, against the EU, the euro and NATO, and the “phenomenon“ “Majesty“ it only lasts three days. PP-DB is a coalition of many formations, some of them are only now beginning to clarify their ideological identity. When parties have internal problems, there can be no normal politics at the state level. When fictitious parties are represented in parliament, we cannot expect anything different from what we see.
- At the same time, we heard acting Prime Minister Dimitar Glavchev say that if there will be an acting cabinet again and there is no one to head it, he is ready to take the post again. Did he like being prime minister?
- It's not about liking, in my opinion, but about responsibility. Let's not forget that after the changes in the Constitution, the “home book” from which the president chooses the prime minister is thin, and the state must have executive power. It is not clear if and when the Constitutional Court will rule on the case regarding the amendments to the Constitution.
- Cabinet options with the second term you see. In principle, it should go to the DPS if the parliamentary group does not fall apart…
- DPS will not disintegrate. At least not now. In fact, this party has experienced some upheavals in the past as well. Famous party members left it, others were expelled. But DPS not only does not disappear, but strengthens its performance. Initially, the DPS declared that it would immediately return the mandate, but subsequently the position may have changed. After the meeting of Dogan's 17 loyalists on Saturday at the honorary leader's residence in Rosenets, there are rumors that the DPS will hold talks and do everything possible to form a regular government. What will happen remains to be seen. It is possible that this is a ball rolling to pass the time and the election does not have to be in September. And the president does the same. It delays the handing over of the second mandate. In my reasoning, I am guided only by public information, but if a government is formed with a DPS mandate, it will be a huge surprise.
- Delyan Peevski against Ahmed Dogan – did you ever expect such a confrontation?
- I did not expect at all that Delyan Peevski would become a leading factor in the DPS, and Dogan nominated him as chairman. I think they are mutually dependent. Without Peevski Dogan will be finished. Without Dogan Peevski, he is nobody, because DPS will not be the same. The current situation will be overcome. Let's not forget the more than BGN 40 million debt of TPP Varna, whatever the name of the company, the owner is Dogan.
- What happens in DPS…
- DPS is a disciplined and closed party. What is happening is hard to know, but nevertheless I think there are some shifts, mostly related to economic dependencies that are used for political action.
We haven't forgotten the hoops from Dogan companies, have we?
We haven't forgotten what Peevski did in business, have we? How was wealth accumulated? Now the 17 Dogan loyalists are talking about restoring the work of the party's national bodies and declaring against Peevski's one-man rule. I don't remember DPS ever disobeying Dogan's unilateral decisions. There is talk of recovery, but also the phrase: “There is no going back!“. I cannot explain this spell. I don't know what that means.
- Many parties want the third mandate. What moves does President Rumen Radev have before him?
- With the collapse of the parliamentary group of “Majesty“ the president has one less possible choice, thank God. This in the circle of the joke. Until now, Radev preferred the BSP for a third term. I am not convinced that this is an appropriate choice now.
In my opinion, he is obliged, if it comes to a third mandate, to give it to PP-DB.
And DSB also asked for it, I guess. With some other insane idea of a “technical government”. PP-DB are in an extremely disadvantageous position, because they did not want to go to a meeting with GERB-SDS, they did not support Rosen Zhelyazkov's cabinet, which completely destroyed the little they had achieved. They were very much counting on getting a GERB cabinet, DPS and maybe ITN, but that didn't happen. Now they face the prospect of being blamed for sending the country into yet another snap election. And we listen to all sorts of fictional definitions of government. I really want to see them in the role of mandate holder and see how they will gather support. Whatever they try to call the government, it needs a majority in parliament, and the majority is political. An absolute majority of 240 votes will not be achieved to dilute responsibility. They must be sure of this.
But after “the assemblies“ now it's the “technique”'s turn, obviously.
ITN and BSP have some similar ideas, but in my opinion, these are all tales from “1001 nights”. Talking is different from action. No one refuses to form a cabinet, but no one says with whom. Everyone talks - as long as they are at work.
- Do we need parties like "Greatness" in the parliament...
- Are you seriously asking me? I wouldn't call this formation a party. It may be registered by the court, but it is not a party, but some group whose members do not even know each other in reality. Unfortunately, the modern world presents us with various tests.
If politicians will have to pretend to be clowns and influencers in order to be liked by Tik-Tok and YouTube audiences, then woe betide us. People with mental disorders and personal dramas can only be stopped from real participation in politics by mass voting.
With a high voter turnout, things will be different. Some analysts argue that the mantra of high activity needs to be debunked. I don't quite agree. I don't want to believe that as activity increases, the results of fictional parties will increase proportionally. I want to believe that we are not “crazy“ community. But how will the parties convince us that we should vote? It's getting quite confusing. Niches are opening up for all kinds of fictional formations.
- Choices produce the same result. How much longer will it be like this?
- Well, every time it's a little different, but the final effect is the same. And let's not take readers back in time, let them look around now. The National Assembly is somehow constituted, but partially. Regulations for the organization and activities of the National Assembly have not yet been adopted, no commissions have been formed, and there is no real legislative activity. A majority is expected, obviously. And there is no such thing. How long this drama will last cannot be given an exact answer. I want to believe that things will normalize when the parties solve their internal problems. If these internal problems are caused by their failures, then it becomes scary.
Look, we have two solid players – GERD and DPS. GERB is an undesirable partner because of the long reign. DPS is an undesirable partner because it is a dangerous and compromised player who mainly cashes in.
PP-DB, as a symbol of change, managed to quarrel with BSP, ITN and GERB. It didn't stay with someone that they didn't fight because they wanted everything, but with a little. “Revival“ I think it has reached its peak. After the appearance of “Greatness” it has already become clear that they can further reduce the weight of this populist and extreme party. And our society is colorful, we clearly need ruling coalitions. Normal political speech must be restored. And stop blaming each other. It is everyone's fault that there is no majority. I think that after the next elections in the fall, normalization should already be achieved.