The GERB-SDS cabinet did not take place, the DPS split in two after Peevski and Dogan were in strained relations. PP-DB will surprisingly take the second mandate, and President Radev said he will hand it over this week. ITN want the third mandate… And things seem to be moving towards new elections and another official cabinet. What to expect… Political scientist Ralitsa Simeonova spoke to FACTS.
- Ms. Simeonova, Peevski's DPS or Dogan's DPS - which will be the real DPS...
- It is difficult to think about DPS beyond the role and leadership of Ahmed Dogan. He is the guarantor of the stability, and probably of the very existence of this party. Hardly any analyst would commit to a prediction of what it will be without him. In this sense, DPS is Ahmed Dogan, and DPS without Dogan will be something else, probably very different from what we know as a phenomenon in Bulgarian politics.
- Why did Peevski turn against Dogan right now?
- Bearing in mind that we do not have inside information, we could only assess the situation by the processes we observe on the "surface".
It seems that Peevski did not have a sufficiently realistic idea of his own role, significance and weight in the DPS.
What has become sufficiently visible in recent months is that he has tried to impose his power and authority in the party with a "firm hand", not realizing, however, that leadership is not imposed by force. It is confirmed on the basis of a personal example, recognition of the presence of certain qualities and skills, for achievements. In the DPS, the natural leader has always been Dogan, and the formal leaders seem to have power and control over internal party processes only to the extent that they enjoy his approval. They seem to always be "shining with reflected light". And in this sense, Peevski cannot be seen as a natural leader of the DPS, despite the influence and resources he undoubtedly has at his disposal. Perhaps it was the latter that deceived him that he would be able to quickly take control of the party and introduce a new model of governance. Such a party organization, which has always seemed too conservative in its modus operandi, could not be changed in such rapid order. In this sense, the internal resistance is not surprising. Separately, bearing in mind that Peevski is also an ethnic Bulgarian, we could hardly imagine that his leadership role would receive approval and recognition from the Bulgarian Turks and Muslims who dominate both the structures and among the voters of the DPS. In view of the above
the tension and opposition we see in this party is logical.
It is important to pay attention to another prism through which Peevski's behavior and actions can be analyzed, namely - his sanctioning under the law "Magnitsky" in 2021. It seems to me that his more serious political activity in recent years, as well as his pronounced Euro-Atlantic positions that dominate his speaking, should also be seen in this context.
- Dogan came out with a statement and asked for Peevski's resignation, and he replied that he would not give it. What did you see in the address of the honorary chairman of the DPS?
- Obviously, Dogan lost his trust in Peevski. At least that's how it seems on the surface. It is notable, however, that Dogan's address used a style that was very different from his typical display over the years. Usually takes a more in-depth and analytical approach.
This simple text somehow doesn't fit in with the others.
At the same time, Peevski seemed to be surprised by Dogan's position. In any case, for now it seems that Peevski will have to realize his political ambitions outside the DPS. It remains to be seen if and how.
- Dogan is talking about mutts, about the prosecution, about the court - has he now seen and understood this?
- It would be naive to think that this is so. Rather, the time is right to highlight those phenomena that are "public secrets", so
to be used as a solid argument for a decision already made.
At the same time, such speaking from one's own circles is a confirmation of what many people assume, and in this sense is an additional reputational damage for Peevski.
- The upheavals in the DPS changed the agenda of the society and PP-DB are now the second political force in the parliament, which means that they will get the second term. They kept saying they would be the opposition. Opposition “technical“ will they offer an office…
- "Opposition Cabinet" is an absolute oxymoron by definition. There is no such phenomenon as "technical" cabinet. In fact, whatever label they put on to try to minimize political responsibility, the truth is that every cabinet is political, and one can always determine which political force or forces are responsible for it, if not on the basis of individual party affiliation ministers, based on the parliamentary support that this cabinet receives. Regarding the second mandate, we have to see what PP-DB will decide. The probability of them falling into a trap if they try to offer a cabinet is high.
They would make the same mistake twice - to bear the primary responsibility for management over which they have insufficient control.
They have already generated serious electoral damage from their previous stints in the executive branch, so the risk to them now is high. It seems to me that their only useful move is to stand at a distance from the executive branch for a period of time to try to rehabilitate themselves in front of their constituents and regain at least some of their lost credibility.
One thing is clear. And this parliament has demonstrated a total lack of capacity to produce a stable and sustainable majority. And even if a government is reached, no matter how unlikely it is at this stage, it is unlikely to last long.
- Does it appear that in recent years tremendous efforts are being made to ensure that there is no stable regular government?
- It is definitely possible to think in this direction. The main parties had indeed many opportunities to form regular cabinets. And if they didn't like the coalition format so much, they could initiate and pass the relevant legislative changes, so as to change the electoral system or at least the electoral methodology, thus solving the problem of highly fragmented parliaments, which supposedly prevents them from creating a stable majority.
Instead, they are doing their best to deepen the political crisis. Once, by inventing increasingly insane pretexts for fictitious opposition. The second time - with his inadequate work in the parliament. An example of the latter is, to put it mildly, the exotic changes in the Constitution.
The truth is that the only normal logic that explains this apparent reluctance of the main political parties to have a stable regular government is the presence of serious external pressure to carry out certain tasks with long-term consequences for the country and, respectively, the reluctance of none of the main political parties entities to bear such responsibility. And office offices are a convenient excuse to postpone tasks and instructions and not carry them out. Short-term and unstable coalitions - also.
In view of the particular geopolitical dynamics and complicated security environment, bearing in mind our geographical location and the expectations of some of our partners for our role in certain processes concerning defense and security, such a hypothesis is not excluded at all. This is how I explain what we are observing. First of all, foreign policy can be the reasons that can lead to such a chaotic development of political processes and a purposeful search for political destabilization in our country. Domestic political reasons could hardly have brought us here.