Based on preliminary data and estimates, the budget balance under the consolidated fiscal program (CFP) for 2024 is expected to be a deficit of around BGN 6.1 billion (3 percent of the estimated GDP). In the conditions of an extremely tight budget, preliminary estimates indicate that Bulgaria's budget position corresponds to the one set under the CFP in the estimates for the Law on the State Budget of the Republic of Bulgaria for 2024 (ZDBRB for 2024) adopted at the end of 2023. The estimates foresee that the deficit under the CFP will improve compared to the level set for the indicator in the annual estimate (a deficit of BGN 6.2 billion). Enormous efforts have been made, both in terms of improving revenue collection and controlling expenditure pressure.
The current forecast of the Ministry of Finance outlines that the deficit of the "General Government" sector for 2024 will remain within the reference value in the Stability and Growth Pact of 3 percent of the estimated GDP.
Main parameters under the CFP based on preliminary data and estimates:
Revenues, grants and donations under the CFP for 2024 are expected to amount to about BGN 72.0 billion, which is 95.6% of the annual estimates. The non-fulfillment of the revenue estimates under the CFP is mainly due to the lower than planned revenues from aid and donations received under the EU funds accounts (due to the non-receipt of the second and third tranches under the Reconstruction and Sustainability Plan). The revenues under the national budget are close to the plan for the year, with the overfulfillment of the estimates for tax revenues largely compensating for the non-fulfillment of the estimates for non-tax revenues.
The tax revenues under the CFP (including revenues from social security contributions) amount to 58.7 billion leva, which represents a 101.3 percent implementation compared to the estimate for the year. Compared to 2023, the revenues in the group increase in nominal terms by 6.4 billion leva (12.2 percent). Non-tax revenues amount to about 9.7 billion leva. BGN, remaining lower than planned in the estimates to the ZDBRB for 2024 mainly due to lower proceeds from the sale of non-financial assets (mainly proceeds from the sale of greenhouse gas emission allowances), lower than planned state and municipal taxes, etc. Revenues in the area of aid and donations (mainly grants under EU programs and funds) amount to about BGN 3.6 billion, remaining significantly below those planned in the estimates to the ZDBRB for 2024 (BGN 7.1 billion). This is due to the non-receipt of the planned second and third tranches under the Recovery and Resilience Plan and part of the planned revenues under the EU operational programs (failure to meet the estimates of revenues from aid and donations under the CFP by about BGN 3.5 billion).
The CFP expenditures (including the Republic of Bulgaria's contribution to the EU budget) for 2024 amount to BGN 78.1 billion, and represent 95.8% of the annual estimates under the ZDBRB for 2024. Compared to the previous year, an increase is reported mainly in social expenses, due to the higher pensions paid, after the increases that came into effect in July 2023 and July 2024, as well as in personnel expenses, after the increase in the salaries of teaching staff and other administrations with the ZDBRB for 2023. and the State Budget and Regional Budget Act for 2024, and others.
Examined by individual budget systems forming the consolidated fiscal program, significantly higher than planned expenditures are reported for the municipal budgets and significantly lower than planned expenditures for the accounts for EU funds.
The contribution of the Republic of Bulgaria to the EU budget, paid as of 31.12.2024 from the central budget, amounts to 1.6 billion BGN, which is in compliance with the currently effective legislation in the field of EU own resources.
The statistical data and the Information Bulletin on the implementation of the state budget and the main indicators of the consolidated fiscal program, based on data from the monthly reports on the cash execution of the budgets of the primary spending units with a budget for 2024. will be published on the website of the Ministry of Finance at the end of January 2025.