There is at least a 90% chance that he will have a regular cabinet. This was the prediction made by Vasil Tonchev, a sociologist from the "Sova Harris" agency, to the Bulgarian National Radio.
"People will be hugely disappointed if this does not happen. A very heavy electoral blow will fall on those who did not do so. The three systemic parties that remained are the negotiators.
I hope that responsibility and reason will prevail, and not the party problems that have so far come to the forefront."
Ahmed Dogan aims for a presence in power and influence, he also pointed out.
"If we go back, we will see that he has never given gratuitous and unreasoned support in politics. It has always had a certain price. It is normal for it to want it now. But on the other hand - they are in a serious confrontation with the other branch of this organization - DPS-New Beginning, and compromises are very likely, because it is a matter of survival.
What Delyan Peevski wants to happen is being implemented by the current caretaker cabinet. It is very likely that this will continue to happen with the next government. If there is any obstacle, it will be the presence of Dogan's people. Given that the majority will depend on them, they will have a way to oppose the influence and pressure that Delyan Peevski can exert on the executive branch.
It is too optimistic to talk about a full mandate, noted Vasil Tonchev.
"But the international situation allows for the formation of a more stable government. There is a wave that is moving towards the anti-globalist, towards the conservative. For a very long time, the liberal formations were on top of the wave. Now they are being replaced en masse. If this government were in sync with our Western partners, it could be more stable and last longer. But there are deep internal contradictions and differences in the ideological profile of the parties that make it up.
A stumbling block will appear now - with the first budget that they have to make.
Quite serious restrictions are needed to get through these difficult times. But our parties are behaving in a pre-election manner. They are courting the electorate instead of taking measures to keep the situation within certain limits. The contradictions between the BSP and the other parties will be serious.
Borisov is a master at organizing his team and controlling it, Tonchev explained.
"I think he has done his calculations well now too. The message he sends is: "We are the most prepared, the most experienced and without us he cannot". He will continue to act in this direction. The risks for his partners are much greater".
This is a unique chance for the BSP leadership with 20 MPs to have a presence in power and to be able to impose their policies, the sociologist pointed out.
"On the other hand, with these partners this will have a negative electoral impact. The leadership and organization that they will manage to impose in their party are very important. At least for now, I do not see any particularly profitable option for them.
The Ministry of Social Affairs and Borislav Gutsanov will have a key role. In what way will he be present in power and what territories will he be able to protect. It will be quite difficult for him in this situation, since the trend is the opposite. Neighboring Romania has imposed a moratorium on pensions and salaries for the entire year. The problems that need to be solved are very serious and acute".
This is a stellar moment for the ITN and they will take advantage, Tonchev believes.
Being in clear opposition, this could leave the PP-DB on the political map, he pointed out.
"PP-DB made a big mistake when they did not implement the rotation. They should have imposed other priorities on themselves, such as entering Schengen and the eurozone. They could have actively participated in order to complete them and thus have a weight in the public space. But they bet on the unsolvable things then – the fight for regulators and the justice system. Currently, their position is logical".