It is not usual for the Russian secret services to they are taking out publicly the dirty shirts of a until recently big boss. The noisy arrest of Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov violated this principle most radically. One wonders why?
Two months in the pretrial detention center in Lefortovo, where they send particularly dangerous “political“ criminals in Russia – this is what a court ruled for Deputy Minister of Defense Timur Ivanov. Ivanov is accused of taking a particularly large bribe, but there are rumors that he will also be charged with treason. But why did the Russian secret services, which had supposedly been following Ivanov for five years, suddenly decide to arrest him right now?
A personal order from Putin?
There is no doubt that arresting the deputy defense minister when there is a full-scale war against Ukraine would require a direct order from President Vladimir Putin, who recently retained his post after a sham election in March. Putin personally had to give the order to release probably only a small part of the compromising facts about Timur Ivanov, and to have him arrested by FSB agents, who completely ignored his personal security by special forces fighters.
It is unlikely that the order for this arrest came from Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, because Ivanov has been his confidant since 2012. On the contrary, Ivanov's arrest weakens Shoigu himself, not least because this deputy minister was responsible for all military construction and for a large part of the supply of the Russian army. There are signs, however, that Shoigu is not fully in control of his own ministry.
The arrest of Timur Ivanov is unlikely to be related to any personnel changes that are expected after the inauguration of Vladimir Putin, which is scheduled for May 7. It is not usual for the Russian secret services to take out so publicly the dirty shirts of a until recently high-ranking official, thus cutting the Shoigu branch. After all, the easiest way to get rid of Timur Ivanov is simply not to reassign him, and then to arrest him quietly and meekly, without scandals.
Why did they make such a fuss
But apparently the plan of the Russian “Silovacs” and their puppeteers were not like that. On the contrary: to make as much noise as possible, this seems to be the purpose of Ivanov's arrest. Add to that the still unconfirmed rumors that he will be charged with treason, and it all looks like a clear signal to those who believe that his activities have been harmful to the Russian military. Obviously, the Kremlin also shares this opinion – no matter that, in general, corruption remains the backbone of the Russian system of government.
All kinds of paramilitary or simply pro-fascist channels on "Telegram", as well as various bloggers who call themselves "military correspondents", and even various other media write that the arrest of Timur Ivanov has caused jubilation in the ranks of the Russian occupation army in Ukraine.
The man who behaved as a particularly efficient manager, managed to supply Crimea with fresh water in the shortest time before the war, the man who demonstratively spends lavishly and vacations in expensive foreign resorts, and his ex-wife and their children acquired Israeli citizenship – this man has long enjoyed sincere hatred among front-line officers. It is claimed that the late Yevgeny Prigozhin spoke of Ivanov as a thief. Today, the media loyal to the Kremlin, citing their sources, claim that the deputy minister was under surveillance for five years, if not more.
Ivanov's arrest as motivation for the army?
As a result of all this, in the eyes of a significant part of the Russian military, Ivanov may become a collective image of the pests. Because a pest is even worse than a traitor. He is to blame for everything: from the lack of shells and spoiled cans, to uncaptured cities and lost equipment.
In other words: Timur Ivanov's arrest creates additional motivation for many Russian military personnel. For them, this is excellent news, which, by a happy coincidence, appears just on the eve of the expected major offensive in Ukraine towards the beginning of the summer. Of course, when it comes to the high-profile removal of a deputy defense minister, one always has to look at conspiracy theories – for a direct strike against Shoigu or for war between the various Kremlin clans. These versions have to be looked at, but in the end only the most obvious remains valid: the one that is directly related to his duties as deputy minister and above all to the war that Putin continues.
This comment expresses the personal opinion of the author and may not coincide with the positions of the Bulgarian editorial team and of DV as a whole.