Russians are learning to live with war, which Vladimir Putin unleashed in Ukraine, writes "Bloomberg".
By today, as Putin prepares to be sworn in as president for another six years, the invasion has become a part of everyday life for many Russians, and expectations have not been met that the pressure of international sanctions and deepening isolation will eventually they will turn them against him. Instead of protesting, many are rallying around the flag.
The Kremlin is using Europe's biggest conflict since World War II to reshape Russia, combining fierce nationalism featuring a potent mix of Soviet-era and imperial nostalgia with an intensifying crackdown on dissent. As a result, Putin faces very little domestic pressure to end the fighting despite massive military casualties. This is a challenge for Ukraine's American and European allies, who are trying to increase the cost to Russia of continuing the war, now in its third year.
The current situation is in stark contrast to the first months after the invasion in February 2022, when many Russians reacted with anger, depression and shock, according to sociologist Anna Kuleshova of the Social Foresight Group, who left Russia after the start of the war and currently lives in Luxembourg.
"When there is no exit from a given situation with dignity, there is no way to leave and you have to earn money and raise children, then it is easier to accept the new reality than to endlessly resist it,", she explained.
The war has permeated every level of Russian society. In many schools, children send gifts and letters to front-line soldiers and must attend special lessons where teachers repeat the Kremlin's message that the country is at war with the West in Ukraine and has acted to defend itself.
Television and radio broadcasts are often filled with military themes and portray the fighters in Ukraine as the descendants of the generation that defeated Nazi Germany in the "Great Patriotic War", ignoring the fact that this time the aggressor is Russia. Recruiting campaigns offer lucrative bonuses and salaries for those who will "be the men" and will join the army on contract service.
Platon Mamatov, 41, signed a contract in April to return to Ukraine after spending six months at the front last year. He stated that people in his hometown of Yekaterinburg often approach him to offer help and support when they see him in uniform. Although not everyone supports the invasion, there is a "consolidation of society" behind the army, pointed out Mamatov.
"Everyone understood that this was a war and that it affected everyone. The border territories are shelled daily, factories in Russia are burning, drones are flying, there are funerals and disabled people are returning from the front," he said.
Putin stated his intention to form a new political and business elite from those "who have proven their loyalty to Russia" in the war shortly before winning a fifth term with a record 87% in March's presidential election. The Kremlin has presented the predetermined election, in which he faced no real competition, as proof that the public fully supports Putin's showdown with the West.
Sanctions have failed to "create enough economic discomfort at a personal level, to show Russians the connection between the wars they are starting and the erosion of their own well-being," said Maria Snegovaya, senior fellow at the Europe, Russia and Eurasia Program at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies. The impact on Russians' living standards is "too small to radically change the public mood," she noted.
As Russia adjusts to unprecedented sanctions that have failed to collapse its economy, many Russians have discovered a financial benefit to the war. A deepening labor shortage, exacerbated by the demand for military recruits, has contributed to increasing pressure on wages as businesses raise wages to retain staff or fill vacancies.
Russia's military economy is growing strongly so far as the government pours money into the defense industry and seeks to protect local businesses from the impact of sanctions. The Kremlin continues to reap revenue from oil and gas sales, targeting countries such as India and China as Europe shuns Russian energy.
"Indicators of public sentiment regarding the socio-economic situation are at the level of 2008, the peak of Putin's stability," reported Denis Volkov, director of the independent polling center "Levada", referring to the energy consumer boom during of Putin's first two presidential terms. "The state spends huge funds to create the feeling that everything is fine, that we live as usual.
Russia is using reserves in its national welfare fund to prop up rising government spending while inflation is almost double the Central Bank's 4% target. The Bank of Russia raised the key interest rate to 16% and the government imposed capital controls to ease pressure on the ruble.
Polls show public support for Putin remains high, with 87 percent approving of his leadership and 76 percent backing the Russian military in Ukraine, according to a March poll. Although Putin's September 2022 order to mobilize 300,000 reservists was a "massive shock" that prompted the sharpest rise in public anxiety in 30 years, sentiment rebounded when authorities made it clear that there would be no to have a new mobilization.
"It was like a bolt from the blue, I cried and asked friends for help to get my husband out of this meat grinder," said 37-year-old Marina, whose husband Alexander is among those called. Now "we have decided that war is also work,", she explained.
The couple gets a subsidized mortgage to buy an apartment in Moscow, and their children get university and summer camp privileges because Alexander is on the front line.
"Before, only money decided everything" in Russia, she explained. "It's not just like that anymore.
The start of the war and the mobilization led to the emigration of hundreds of thousands of Russians. This created "the feeling that all these "smart" people have finally left and "real men", such as skilled factory workers, can get opportunities and progress, sociologist Kuleshova pointed out.
The Kremlin's harshest crackdown in decades against even mild criticism has silenced Russians who oppose the war. The state has detained rights activists, journalists and playwrights and jailed ordinary people for posting on social media under a "fake news" law that makes it a crime to criticize the war.
The war revived the Soviet-era habit of people accusing neighbors, teachers and colleagues of a perceived lack of patriotism by writing denunciations to the authorities demanding criminal investigations.
Paranoia is spreading even among the Russian elite. Many people fear being accused of disloyalty and being prosecuted if they speak out about the war and its aftermath.
Data from Russia's Supreme Court show that 39 people were convicted of treason in 2023, the highest number in nine years, and another 730 were found guilty of terrorism, a charge whose definition has been expanded , so as to encompass opposition pro-democracy groups such as the late Alexei Navalny's network.
The number of people branded as "foreign agents" by the Department of Justice, has grown since the beginning of the invasion and exposes them to the threat of prosecution.
The crackdown had a chilling effect on Russians' willingness to protest. In 2023, the Supreme Court received only 2,000 appeals against official bans on rallies and mass gatherings. That's down from 22,000 last year and 19,000 in 2021.
Navalni's death in an Arctic prison in February underscored the sense of hopelessness. Although thousands defied the Kremlin to pay their last respects at his funeral in Moscow, there was no impetus for further protests against Putin and the war.
Support among ordinary Russians for peace talks tends to increase only when the military takes a turn in the fight in Ukraine, noted Snegavoy of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Even as they support the talks, many insist on keeping the territories that Russian troops currently occupy in Ukraine, which Putin has declared "forever". for part of Russia.
Mamatov, a former political strategist, said he was collecting money from Russians through a Telegram channel to buy items such as drones, body armor and medicine for frontline troops.
Donations are increasing every month because people understand that this is "our common war,", he pointed out.