After Moscow and Belarus announced , that it will test its tactical nuclear forces. Military officials believe a possible strike on potential nuclear weapons storage facilities in Poland or NATO infrastructure is underway. Is there a threat?
The Ministry of Defense in Belarus said that a "sudden inspection" of the country's non-strategic nuclear weapon launchers. This happened shortly after the Russian Ministry of Defense announced a similar intention, which cannot but raise the question of what these “sudden“ joint exercises.
"The Sudden" exercises in Belarus - an expression of dependence on Moscow
In his speech on the occasion of Victory Day (May 9), Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said that in the course of the inspection, special ammunition will be supplied to the missile and aviation military units, will be loaded on launchers and on planes. “The missile divisions of the operational-tactical complexes “Iskander“ and “Polonese“ will be secretly brought to the designated positions and will test missile strikes in order to reflect a possible attack on Belarus, Lukashenko explained and assured that the exercises will be exclusively of a “defensive“ character.
Keeping in mind that similar exercises were recently announced by Russia, the experts interviewed by DV are unanimous that it is a matter of coordinated Belarusian-Russian exercises, or at least of synchronized operations of the two countries. They point out that Belarusian nuclear forces are part of Russia's non-strategic forces, and Belarus does not have its own nuclear weapons.
The fact that Lukashenko announced after Moscow “sudden“ teachings, demonstrates his dependence on Russia. “Either Moscow decided to hold the exercises and instructed the Belarusian authorities to join, or else Lukashenko decided to play with the toys that he does not really control. The clear conclusion from all this is that Belarusian military policy and national security policy are not independent - Belarus simply follows instructions from Moscow, political scientist Rigor Nizhnikov tells DV.
The EU does not take Lukashenko's words seriously
Lithuanian military expert Darius Antanaitis supports the thesis of Lukashenko's dependence on Moscow. “These exercises are another sign that the dictator Lukashenko no longer has a say in Belarus, and the entire army belongs to Russia. Moreover, it should be clear that Belarus itself now becomes a target for attacks in case Russia starts aggressive actions against EU or NATO countries.“
In Lithuania, which borders Belarus, as well as in the EU as a whole, they are closely monitoring the exercises and the situation. “Of course, not all of Lukashenko's words are taken seriously, but we are nevertheless watching carefully, because a possible mistake could turn out to be tragic. Our intelligence and the intelligence of the NATO countries are studying the location of the troops in Belarus and their actions”, says the military expert.
"The target of the exercises are NATO infrastructure sites in Poland"
For now, it is not clear where exactly the exercises are taking place and where the tactical nuclear weapons are located in Belarus. Nizhnikov suggests that they are at a training ground near Osipovichi, in the Mogilev region. “Not far from this place, the fighters of the private army “Wagner” were stationed. But in general, the nuclear weapons in Belarus are not so much, they are of a tactical nature, and there is no question of any large-scale participation of the troops in the exercises in Belarus.“
Belarusian military expert Alexander Alesin, who regularly speaks to the state media, states that the nuclear forces in Belarus consist of operational-tactical missile complexes “Iskander-M“ with a range of up to 500 km. They can carry nuclear warheads weighing between five and 50 kilotons.
Alesin calls ongoing tactical nuclear weapons exercises in both Russia and Belarus an element of information warfare. “I think a possible disarmament strike is being carried out on potential nuclear weapons storage sites in Poland. NATO infrastructure facilities in Poland are also a potential target, but I do not believe that a nuclear weapon can be used in Ukraine – there are no worthy targets for the deployment of nuclear war.“
Lukashenko will participate more actively in Russia's hybrid attacks
Explaining the goals of the exercises in turn, Rigor Nizhnikov notes that Russia's tasks are understandable – to conduct an information and political campaign against the West and Ukraine. “Last time, Russia played the “nuclear card” in the summer of 2022, during the counteroffensive of Ukraine. Now Moscow is bringing back the nuclear issue as a factor in withholding Western military aid to Ukraine in order to split the West. But I think that Russia is not yet ready to use nuclear weapons,“, says Nizhnikov.
Lukashenko's goals in this regard are completely different – to show his loyalty to Putin and boast of weapons that the Poles do not have, the expert points out. “NATO and EU countries should treat Lukashenko as a threat and take his words seriously, but there is no need for this to become a cause for commotion – however, he has no authority over nuclear weapons. The West should prepare for the fact that Belarus will participate more actively in Russia's hybrid attacks against the West and not be surprised when this happens.“