The more actively Russia bombs Ukraine, the more it increases the pressure to drop Western taboos on sending NATO troops and on strikes with Western weapons against targets in Russia. Is there a turning point in the war?
News are coming from Ukraine that speak of a turning point in the war led by Russia. The Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Oleksandr Sirsky, said that he had signed documents for the reception of French military instructors in Ukraine. He wrote on social media that they may arrive "soon" to get an idea of the Ukrainian training centers. The general called it an "ambitious project" and hopes other partners will follow suit.
French military instructors for Ukraine
France, meanwhile, has softened things up a bit, clarifying that such talks are underway but nothing concrete is planned yet. Yet France appears to be the first NATO country to send troops to Ukraine. In February, President Emmanuel Macron sensationally announced that he did not rule out the possibility of sending troops to Ukraine. Until then, this was seen as one of the red lines that should not be crossed - both from the point of view of Moscow and the West. Russia has threatened to target Western soldiers in Ukraine. And yesterday (May 28), during his visit to Germany, French President Macron went even further - he stated that under certain conditions, Ukraine will be able to use French weapons against Russian military targets near the border, but not inside Russian territory .
At the same time as the expansion of Russian attacks in Ukraine in the West, the debate on this issue is also deepening. The lack of sufficient Ukrainian soldiers and the shortage of ammunition make it easier for the Russians to seize new and new territories in Ukraine, and observers expect a new Russian offensive in the summer.
On this background, sending military instructors to Ukraine is a first possible scenario in this direction, French foreign policy expert Nicolas Tenzer told DV: "France is ready to do this as quickly as possible. This can be done in Lviv or Kiev, he added. Another option would be to help the Ukrainian military begin attacking Russian targets. But in the West they still avoid talking about it, because no one wants to be dragged into the war.
Jahara Matysek, a military expert at the US Naval War College, believes that sending several thousand Western military instructors on a training mission to, say, Lviv is an easily feasible option. The European Union already has such a training mission and could easily implement it in Ukraine, Matisek told DV, who in April called on the Europeans to take the lead in sending troops to Ukraine.
Can Ukraine defeat Russia with Western weapons?
However, his proposal goes even further. According to Matysek, Western countries could deploy troops along the Ukrainian border, as well as in the interior of the country - to the right bank of the Dnieper River. "I think this would send a very clear signal to Russian President Putin that the West will no longer tolerate the seizure of more Ukrainian territory by Russia," says the expert.
But other red lines are also starting to fall away. Ukrainian President Zelensky keeps insisting that Ukraine's Western partners allow strikes with Western weapons against targets on Russian territory. So far, most of them have refused, especially the US, but also Germany.
Washington and Berlin justify this with the desire to avoid escalation. Jahara Matysek believes that without strikes with Western weapons on Russian territory, Ukraine will hardly be able to defend cities near the Russian border, such as Kharkiv. Nikola Tenzer criticizes the restraint of the West and recalls in this connection that according to the UN Charter, every attacked country, and in this particular case Ukraine, has the right to defend itself.
No-fly zone?
If the West does send troops to Ukraine, it will also need additional air defenses to protect them, says US military expert Matysek. This was also a taboo until recently, which has recently been increasingly questioned. Some politicians and experts in Germany are pleading for NATO countries to be able to shoot down Russian drones and missiles over Western Ukraine from their own territory.
This would effectively amount to the creation of a limited no-fly zone to protect cities such as Lviv on the Polish border. However, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is against any NATO intervention and is appealing for more supplies of air defense systems to Ukraine. Germany recently sent two more air defense systems to Kiev – one “Patriot“ and one IRIS-T.
Humanitarian mission?
Mathysek shows an understanding of this reticence of Germany, for which there are historical reasons. However, he believes the risk of escalation is acceptable. If the deployment of Western forces remains limited and Russian missiles and drones are shot down only over Ukraine, but not over Russia itself or its ally Belarus, then it will be "almost a humanitarian mission," according to the American expert. The goal: to protect civilian infrastructure and the population "from indiscriminate Russian attacks".