Tikhomir LAZAROV
Analyzing the recent events in Ukraine, some factors must be taken into account, which in the medium term will lead to a change, not only in the tactical, but also in the strategic situation, which directly concerns Bulgaria , affecting its nearby territorial and water areas. First of all is the strengthening of the so-called nuclear rhetoric.
In Russia, David Cameron's words that Great Britain has nothing against weapons provided by it being used for strikes on Russian territory were met very harshly. This was seen as an attempt to escalate the conflict, leading to a threat to Britain of retaliatory military action by Russia.
These statements were followed in a cascade by the other arms suppliers to Ukraine, primarily the US and Denmark, which also allowed their weapons to be used on targets in Russia, albeit with some conditions. The senior military leadership of Russia, in its analysis of these statements, reported that Ukraine does not have the capacity to carry out such strikes on its own, as it does not have the necessary means of targeting, nor the personnel and capacity to work with this type of weaponry.
This further draws attention to the arms supplying countries and is an argument in support of the thesis that Russia is at war with the entire west. In Russian society, the topic of using tactical nuclear weapons has been discussed since the beginning of the conflict, and at the moment the sentiment can be summed up as: “What are we waiting for?”, which in itself is troubling enough to say the least because of the Russian leadership he will not have to justify such an action in domestic political terms or look for sufficiently serious occasions and reasons to justify the use of such a weapon.
In addition, articles have recently become more frequent in Russia, which explain that the use of a tactical nuclear weapon has nothing to do with the use of a strategic one, that the radiation impact of a single strike is limited to within 30 sq/km. By all accounts, such posts appear to be aimed at appeasing people who imagine Hiroshima-style apocalyptic nuclear pictures.
Another thing worth noting is that Russia has officially announced that it will consider the F-16 fighter jets that are about to be delivered to Ukraine as nuclear weapons carriers, this has even been stated by Lavrov, a nuclear weapon carrier, is also seen in military science as a nuclear weapon target. Recently, the former director of Roscosmos, who is an influential political figure, opined that in the west they have lost their fear of the mushroom cloud and if they see one, it will help them “focus”. He later clarified that he meant a demonstration nuclear test, not use in a combat situation.
Beyond the nuclear rhetoric, the newly admitted NATO member – Sweden said it would provide Ukraine with two anti-aircraft defense aircraft, so-called AWACS, to be used to target F-16 fighter jets. The specifics of these planes suggest that they will be used outside the airspace of Ukraine, as the most – likely recipients for basing are Poland, Romania and Bulgaria. Because it is difficult for the Russian Aerospace Forces to shoot down a plane flying over western Ukraine, but to hit the target while it is based at an airport, they have a variety of means.
In this context, it should be noted that Zelensky's request that NATO begin shooting down Russian missiles from its territory has no particular practical applicability. Russian armed forces attack western Ukraine mainly with two types of missiles. These are air- and sea-based cruise missiles and the "Dagger" hypersonic missiles. Cruise missiles have a very low flight profile, following the topography of the terrain, making them difficult to detect and destroy beyond the range of visual detection. To further complicate air defense assets, the missiles are given complex flight maneuvers, even making 180 degree turns on the way to the target.
Given these characteristics, the NATO countries bordering Ukraine could intercept missiles no more than 50 kilometers deep in Ukrainian territory, even if they do not rely on ground means, but keep fighter jets on duty for interception. Negligibly small area for Ukrainian standards. Here we are specifically talking about Poland and Romania, which could be involved, and in the case of Romania, the possibilities are even more modest due to the significantly older military aircraft fleet. The situation is even more complicated with the "Dagger" missiles, which, due to their extremely high speed, can only be hit by the new variants of the Patriot air defense system, and then under certain conditions, which makes hitting such a target only theoretically possible.
How does all this concern and will it affect Bulgaria?
Heading first to our near water area, shipping on the Danube and in the Black Sea is directly affected. The main threat currently comes from fragmented sea mines, which can be detected throughout the water area and pose a major risk to civilian shipping.
Ukraine's increasing activity using Magura V5 maritime drones is turning the area between Odessa and Crimea into a real battlefield. Russian naval aviation is constantly trying to hunt down and destroy these drones. Success has been variable for both countries, but the said area, which was key to Black Sea shipping, is now completely inaccessible. Greater escalation in the Black Sea basin cannot be expected. It can only result from the involvement of NATO in the conflict, and even then warships of the alliance would not enter the zone.
The main risks are from the use of tactical nuclear weapons on the territory of Ukraine and that the conflict will go beyond the borders of the country. Escalation outside of Ukraine could be the result of the intervention of foreign troops, such as requests so far only France gives, or a Russian attack on bases on which future Ukrainian F-16s and AWACS can be based.
In any case, Bulgaria must strengthen its military and economic readiness to meet such challenges. The issue of integrating the military and economic sectors is becoming more and more urgent, which will further strengthen the stability of both, thereby affecting the overall stability of the state.