Donald Trump's potential influence on the course of the Ukrainian conflict and the Western alliance is no secret to anyone. But what is happening in Germany is no less important, notes the "Financial Times", quoted by BTA.
Germany is the second largest donor country to Ukraine after the United States and a key player in both the EU and NATO. However, there is a rise in populist parties sympathetic to Russia in the country.
"Alternative for Germany" (AfD) narrowly missed out on victory in the Brandenburg state elections. This is the party's third consecutive strong showing, after finishing first in Thuringia and second in Saxony.
When you add up the AfD votes and those for the "Sarah Wagenknecht Alliance" (SAW), at least a third of Germans (and even more in eastern Germany) vote for populist parties that are strongly anti-immigration, hostile to NATO and determined to cut aid to Ukraine. When Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke in the Bundestag in June, 77 AfD members, i.e. all but four boycotted his speech, the Financial Times reports.
The AfD’s political stance, combined with suspicions that many of its members secretly want an even more radical agenda, means that Germany’s established parties will refuse to enter into a coalition with the populists – at least at the national level. But the rise of political extremism has already had an impact on government policy. Germany’s decision to reintroduce border controls with its EU neighbours reflects concerns about illegal migration fuelled by the populists.
Supporters of Ukraine fear that the political changes will undermine German support for Kiev. The Ukrainian army is already barely holding off Russian troops in the east of the country and is running short of ammunition and personnel. The decline in German and American support will help Russia win, notes the "Financial Times".
Even if Russian tanks do not enter Kiev, Ukraine's supporters fear that Zelensky's government will soon be forced to make territorial concessions that would allow Vladimir Putin to claim victory. An unprofitable peace agreement would cast doubt on Ukraine's future as a viable state and encourage Putin to threaten other countries.
Friends of Ukraine in Berlin see more and more signs of a further softening of German support. While the UK and US are discussing allowing Ukrainian forces to launch missiles deep into Russian territory, Germany has ruled out the prospect of supplying its Taurus missiles.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz has maintained that he will not relax the rules on the use of German weapons in Ukraine's fight against Russia, despite Kiev's pleas, dpa reported. The government has taken "several decisions" on military support for Kiev, "which are extremely clear," Scholz said in New York, shortly before meeting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
He said this included restrictions that would prevent Ukraine from firing missiles deep into Russian territory.
"This is not consistent with my personal position ... We will not do this. "And we have good reasons for that," said Scholz, who is in the United States for the week-long high-level meeting of the United Nations General Assembly.
German Finance Minister Christian Lindner said that further financing for Ukraine was impossible without compensatory budget cuts, and these were politically unthinkable. The EU's decision to mobilise some of Russia's frozen assets to help Ukraine has eased the pressure on Berlin. But the issue of German financial aid is certain to return, the agency notes.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz is falling further behind in national opinion polls and looks set to be defeated in the federal election next September. Ukraine's most ardent supporters fear that Scholz will be tempted to regain lost political ground by launching a peace initiative before the election.
Nervousness about Scholz's plans was fueled by rumors in Berlin last week that a contact group of members of his Social Democratic Party had arrived in Moscow for secret talks, the "Financial Times" reported.
The ministry categorically rejected these speculations. The impression remains that Scholz's key aides are equally disgusted by both the Russophile populists and the Berlin "hawks" who insist on a sharp increase in aid to Kiev. On the Ukrainian issue, the Social Democrats consider themselves from the camp of the moderates. The government's task, as Scholz himself sees it, is to maintain the unity of the divided country by pursuing a predominantly pro-Ukrainian policy.
Along with the local elections in three German states, another move by Scholz was noticed. At an event in the city of Prenzlau in mid-September, he said Berlin was seeking to prosecute the perpetrators of the attack on the Nord Stream gas pipelines, Deutsche Welle reported.
"This was an act of terrorism," Scholz said, adding that his government had called on security authorities and prosecutors to continue investigating the incident.
"We want to bring those who did this, if we can catch them, to justice in Germany," he said, adding that there would be "no leniency" in this case.
The "Nord Stream" pipelines from Russia to Germany were blown up in the fall of 2022. In August, Germany issued an arrest warrant for a Ukrainian suspect who had been living in Poland in connection with the case. The suspect was not detained, Deutsche Welle reported.
Sholz stressed that Russia had already cut off gas supplies to the pipeline before the attack. He said that replacing Russian gas with another source had cost Germany well over 100 billion euros.
Meanwhile, among Ukrainians - long frustrated by the snail's pace at which German aid has arrived - any hint that Scholz's government might become even more cautious only raises alarm. Hawks in Kiev and Berlin argue that if Putin is not stopped in Ukraine, he will move on and threaten NATO and ultimately Germany itself, the Financial Times reported.
Sholz and his allies counter that he is far from naive about the threat Putin poses. They see daily evidence of Russian brutality in Ukraine, as well as signs of subversion and disinformation within Germany itself. In the long term, German analysts fear that Russia has completely converted its economy to a war machine and is ready to mass-produce weapons. They note that some of the most advanced weapons Russia produces are not being used in Ukraine, but appear to be stockpiled for future conflict.
The German chancellor knows all this. But political leaders live in the moment, and their views are almost always determined by domestic politics. Scholz faces a very difficult election, and he would like to run as a candidate for peace.
At the same time, he lives and works in Berlin, a city that has seen much darkness and sorrow, but is far from the modern front line in Ukraine. Last week, the street bars and bike paths near the chancellery were bustling with people enjoying the sun of a gypsy summer. It will be difficult for the government and the people to come to terms with the idea that dark times are returning to Europe, the "Financial Times" notes.