The authorities in Israel see in the current situation an extraordinary opportunity - not only to destroy Hamas and Hezbollah, but also to completely change the balance in the Middle East. The Israeli leader's gaze is directed at Tehran - the goal is to decisively weaken the influence of the ayatollahs' regime. Netanyahu himself directly stated his intentions and promised the "honest Persians" on Monday that the day when they will be free from the tyrannical regime will come "sooner than they imagine," writes "Politico” in his analysis on the subject.
Netanyahu's threat that there is no place in the Middle East that "Israel cannot reach" no longer sounds like just heavy words. Israel is not only fighting Iran's proxy groups such as Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis in Yemen, but also demonstrating superiority in terms of both technology and espionage on Iranian territory. Former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad even told CNN's Turkish edition that Israel had managed to place its double agent at the head of the Iranian service responsible for searching for agents of the Israeli intelligence service Mossad in Iran.
The Enormous Challenge Before Iran
For the leaders of the regime in the Islamic Republic, what Israel is doing now is undermining the prestige and reputation of the ayatollahs in the region. For many years, they have presented themselves as a serious military force, mostly through their support for the groups of the so-called "Axis of Resistance". The assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah is a blow to Iran that failed to protect him, just as it failed to protect Ismail Haniyeh, who was killed in a government building in Tehran a few months earlier. There is now increasing talk that the "Axis of Resistance" is falling apart.
Now Israel has also launched a ground offensive in Lebanon, for which the armed forces do not provide information on how long it will last. However, reservists are also being sent to the northern border, writes "Politico". The European publication also quotes a senior Israeli administration official as saying that Israel is likely planning a large-scale ground operation aimed at pushing Hezbollah north of the Litani River, 29 kilometers from the border, as stipulated in a UN resolution adopted at the end of the previous war between Israel and Lebanon in 2006.
Netanyahu unlikely to back down
Israel will not stop striking Hezbollah's command posts and weapons depots, as well as trying to eliminate all of its leaders, the source also told "Politico". Netanyahu's tough stance against the Shiite group seems to be having a positive impact on his approval ratings in the country. His approval ratings, which have been dramatically low for the past few days, are rising. The approval ratings for his Likud party are emerged clearly in late July when it killed senior Hezbollah and Hamas leaders in Beirut and Tehran within 24 hours, the "Financial Times" recalls. The latest strikes against Hezbollah have only reinforced this trend.
This will likely motivate him to ignore any calls for a ceasefire, such as those coming from Israel's Western allies. According to American sources for "Politico", the current ground offensive will be limited, but there are also concerns - both about Iranian interference and about Israel crossing red lines.
The deepening discrepancy between the desires of the United States and the actions of Israel is forcing the administration in Washington to try to adapt its diplomatic efforts to Netanyahu's impulses, writes the "Washington Post". The White House boasted that it had managed to convince Israel to launch a limited operation in southern Lebanon, rather than a full-scale war. At the same time, US authorities were forced to repeatedly revise their "red lines", justifying with hindsight Israeli decisions with which they had previously declared that they did not agree.
The beginning of the end of the Iranian "Axis of Resistance"?
Many would say that there is no better time for Israel to change the balance of power in the Middle East, expert Matthew Saville of the British think tank "Royal United Services Institute" told "Politico". Former Mossad chief Tamir Pardo shares the same opinion, telling Israeli media that "this opportunity should not be missed". In the words of Ahmed Fuad Alkhatib of the Atlantic Council, "the region may be witnessing the beginning of the end of Iran's "Axis of Resistance".
However, according to other experts quoted by "Politico", such as Julien Barn-Dassi of the European Council on Foreign Policy, the idea that a new order can be created in the Middle East is "a dangerous illusion". The reason, he said, is that there is no strategy for the future that adequately addresses how Israel will protect its security and how to end all the interconnected regional conflicts.
In addition to the loss of its leader, Hezbollah has also suffered serious blows during the intensified Israeli attacks that preceded the current invasion, including heavy airstrikes near and in Beirut over the weekend. But the group continues to fire rockets into northern Israel, sometimes reaching the center of the country. This speaks clearly about Hezbollah's resilience, commented the "New York Times".
According to experts quoted by the American publication, Hezbollah is believed to have perhaps the largest arsenal of all armed groups in the world. A March report by the research organization "Center for Strategic and International Studies” states that Hezbollah's stockpile is between 120,000 and 200,000 rockets and shells.
Mina Kirkova editor