Bob Woodward's new book "War" provides a harrowing look at the national security decision-making process in the Biden administration. Established early in the war, the White House creates its own self-fulfilling prophecy.
President Biden's self-imposed red line was his eternal fear of Russia using tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine.
Then-chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley inexplicably told the Kremlin all it needed to know when he asked his Russian counterpart, General Valery Gerasimov, "under what conditions would you use nuclear weapons?"< /p>
Mili is essentially asking the Russians, "How far are we allowed to go? What are our limits?" In doing so, he allowed Russian President Vladimir Putin to set our rules.
Gerasimov's answer was as follows: "If there is an attack against Russia, which threatens the stability of the regime - the first condition. The second is if a foreign power attacks Russia with a weapon of mass destruction - so that's chemical, biological or nuclear. Third, Russia reserves the right to use tactical nuclear weapons in the event of a catastrophic loss on the battlefield.
That one phone call gave the Kremlin the road map to curbing US support for Ukraine - and the Kremlin has been taking advantage of it ever since. Biden's escalation paralysis probably started with that call.
Gerasimov's third condition to Milli explains the Biden administration's strategy for helping Ukraine and the "only weaken Russia" approach to war. As we have already argued, "the administration's fear of victory outweighed its fear of loss. Allowing Ukraine to defend itself became the strategy - a war of attrition that would eventually bring both sides to the negotiating table was seen as the best course of action. Not for Ukraine, but for the USA."
Since then, Putin has exploited this weakness. And the US obeyed him. Every Ukrainian success on the battlefield, every new weapon system provided to the Ukrainian military, was countered by a new Russian nuclear threat.
Exercises of tactical and strategic nuclear forces, test launches, aides showing Russian "nuclear football" and meetings with North Korea - all aimed at reinforcing the belief that Russia will respond with a nuclear option.
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Giving Ukraine a chance to win was never an option.
"If we fail to get Russia completely out of Ukraine, we will have allowed Putin to get away with something,", Biden said. "If we succeed in completely kicking Russia out of Ukraine, the probability of encountering a nuclear weapon is very high, because Putin will not allow it to be kicked out of Ukraine without breaking the seal on tactical nuclear weapons. So we're at a dead end. Too much success means nukes, too little - some uncertain, indeterminate result".
Biden later stated that "if Putin uses a tactical nuclear weapon on the battlefield in Ukraine, the United States will not respond with nuclear weapons," adding that there would be no "nuclear response to the use of the same weapon on the battlefield in Ukraine". As Bob Woodward concludes, "nuclear weapons were the silent shadow that loomed over all their discussions.
The Biden administration chose the easy mistake (arming Ukraine to defend itself) over the difficult but correct decision to arm Ukraine to defeat the Russians and push them out of the country.
According to retired Army General Jack Keane [founder of ISW - note. mine] Putin "is fully determined to take control of Ukraine ... he is also determined to expand into Eastern Europe and enlarge the Russian Empire". The Kremlin even integrated over 11,000 North Korean servicemen into Russian formations in their Kursk counter-offensive.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, however, is determined to ensure the independence of Ukraine, stating to the presenter of the program "Meeting with the press" on NBC's Kristen Welker: "We are not ready to give our freedom to that fucking terrorist Putin."
Russian victims are not a brake for Putin - he will continue to exert pressure, create carnage. "The Special Military Operation" of Putin is now approaching 33 months. He gave 712,610 Russian casualties. In October, Moscow was losing an average of 1,500 soldiers a day. According to data from the Ukrainian General Staff, on November 11, Russia lost 1,950 soldiers.
As the Biden administration tries to "right the ship" in Ukraine in the final months of his term, Trump's new team is considering cutting aid to Ukraine and standing firmly behind Israel in its conflict with Hamas. However, the two countries are inextricably linked to the "axis of evil", led by Russia.
Keane made this connection on Fox News: "China, Russia, Iran and North Korea are colluding, cooperating and coordinating together and have become much more aggressive and assertive ... It is not isolated that Russia invaded Ukraine. It is not isolated that Iran activates all its proxies in the Middle East.
Senator Bill Haggerty's (R-Tenn.) comment on the "Face to Face" to cut aid to Ukraine to "stop the bloodshed" is not a solution. It will not stop the bloodshed - rather it will simply accelerate it.
Russia will use more artillery, launch more cruise missiles and drones, and throw more corpses into the meat grinder in Ukraine until Kiev capitulates. Ukrainian cities and the civilians living in them will bear the brunt of the slaughter. So are the soldiers in the trenches after they run out of ammunition.
Biden's last-minute efforts to release the remaining $6 billion from the aid package approved by Congress in April, as well as $20 billion in loans to Ukraine, will have no effect on the outcome of the war, unless also provide precision weapons for deep strikes and permission to use them. Doubling defense weapons will not win the war, it will only prolong it. Why is this lesson so hard to understand?
Europe is starting to get it though.
If elected German chancellor, Friedrich Merz says he "will insist on a 24-hour deadline for Russia to end the war. If this request is not met, he will advocate for the delivery of long-range missiles "Taurus" of Ukraine".
Even the UK and France are developing much-needed backbone as a second Trump administration approaches. According to The Telegraph, "Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron ... will discuss on Monday whether Joe Biden ... can be persuaded to give Ukraine permission to launch Storm Shadow missiles deep into Russia.
Washington's best course of action is a Ukraine first policy - to defeat Russia. Ukraine is on the verge of a negative outcome if it is not provided with critical weapons systems to defeat Russian and North Korean troops and their weapons systems in Russia. On the other hand, Israel can go it alone against Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran for now. Once Russia is defeated in Ukraine, its support for North Korea and Iran will decrease.
Trump needs to see a winning hand to get behind it. Biden did not give Ukraine a chance to win - only to survive. That being said, the Trump administration would also do well to remember Captain James Lawrence's call regarding the fate of the American ship "Chesapeake" in June 1813: "Don't give up the ship!"
Ukraine is this ship - a ship of democracy in the Black Sea region, which is fighting for its survival. Russia's victory would also encourage other countries from the "axis of evil" to pursue territorial aspirations. Preventing this is in the US national security interest.
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Colonel (retired) Jonathan Sweet served 30 years as an Army intelligence officer. Mark Toth writes on national security and foreign policy issues.
translation: Nick Iliev