Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad has fallen from power, but the future of the country remains too unclear and it depends on numerous factors and divergent interests. Who are they and what developments can be expected? Analysis by Kersten Knipp.
Bashar Assad is in Moscow, it became clear from reports of Russian news agencies. His family was granted asylum “for humanitarian reasons”, TASS and RIA Novosti reported on Saturday.
Former Prime Minister Mohammed Jalali, who will rule the country until power is handed over, has said he no longer has contact with the fugitive dictator. Syrian sources confirmed that Assad left the country on a private plane on Saturday. Videos and photos on social media show Syrian citizens storming Assad's residence and celebrating the change of power.
"A free Syria awaits you"
On the agenda is the question of the future of Syria. On Sunday, the Islamist group “Hayat Tahrir al-Sham“ gave the first official statement with an appeal: “All the exiles of the world, a free Syria awaits you”. Footage posted online shows many of the regime's prisons opening their doors - including the sinister Saidnaya north of Damascus, where thousands of regime opponents have been tortured and killed.
But how free will Syria really be? All eyes are on Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, who now largely controls the country. How does the group imagine the future of Syria?
Has the "Hayat Tahrir al-Sham" changed?
„Hayat Tahrir al-Sham“ has come a long way, Andre Bank from the German Institute for Global and Local Studies told DV. Already years ago, al-Jolani distanced himself from al-Qaeda. He is also considered an opponent of the jihadist "Islamic State". In other words: His mission is not directed against the West, but rather focuses on Syria itself. It is possible that he will try to impose a Salafist regime with a more conservative interpretation of the Koran and Islam in general. Jolani himself is currently presenting himself as a moderate leader - during the Aleppo offensive, for example, he called for Christians and minorities to be protected.
In an interview with CNN, the leader of the group stated that he wants to build state institutions that include representatives of all social groups in society. The fact that so far there has been no violence against minorities is “encouraging”, James Dorsey of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy told DV. However, the former German ambassador to Syria, Andreas Reinicke, is far more skeptical - according to him, “Hayat Tahrir al-Sham“ is still tied ideologically to al-Qaeda, therefore the future of the Christian and Kurdish minorities in Syria is also at risk.
What will be the future of the Kurds and other opposition groups?
There are other organizations and military groups that have influence in Syria. On the side of “Hayat Tahrir al-Sham“ the Syrian National Army, which emerged from the ranks of the Free Syrian Army, is also fighting. Besides being an opponent of Assad, it is also known for its proximity to Turkey.
The Syrian National Army has repeatedly been accused of crimes against humanity for attacks on the Kurds. On the other hand, the organization itself currently has mechanisms in place to prevent such crimes, says Omer Ozkizilchik, an expert at the Atlantic Council. It is crucial which group within the Syrian National Army will prevail and what its relationship will be with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which is perceived as competition.
Anti-government militias in southern Syria also play a role. Most of these movements, however, are secular and are similar to Jolani's group only in that they were in opposition to the Assad regime. The Kurds, who control northeastern Syria, oppose the Syrian National Army and Turkey. The conflict there also carries a serious risk of violence.
Turkey wins, Iran and Russia lose
The attitude of international players towards Syria will be crucial for the future of the country. The events of recent days have seriously helped Turkey increase its influence, says James Dorsey. Ankara may support an Islamist government, but the price for that support will be potential conflict with the Kurds and decentralization within Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. The big loser is Iran, which has been supporting Bashar al-Assad's regime in the fight against the rebels for years.
Marcus Schneider, who heads the Peace and Security Project in the Middle East of the Friedrich Ebert Foundation, commented that the fall of the Assad regime will have a heavy impact on the so-called Iranian “Axis of Resistance”. “For Tehran, the defeat in Syria can be compared to the defeat of the Soviet Union in Afghanistan. It could herald the end of the Islamist regime in Tehran.“
Russia, which has supported the Assad regime since 2015. hither, also suffered a loss. From the Assad regime, the Kremlin received the naval base near Tartus and the Hmeimim air base near Latakia on the Mediterranean coast. And he probably plans to protect them at all costs, which could lead to serious clashes.