The end of Bashar Assad's regime and his escape in Russia raised the question of the survival of the two Russian military bases in Syria. The naval base in Tartus is particularly valuable. Does Russia have anything to replace it with?
Will Russia lose its two military bases in Syria after the victory of the Islamist rebels and the escape of President Bashar al-Assad? The issue is open, and a quick solution is not in sight, according to experts. On Monday, Russian presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov said it was too early to talk about that. The Russian media write that from the radical Sunni group “Hayat Tahrir al-Sham“ have guaranteed Moscow the security of military bases – the naval base in Tartus and the airbase in Hmeimim.
In front of DV, the security expert Gustav Gressel stated that although there is some movement around the Hmeimim camp, it is hardly a full-fledged evacuation. “And the Russian ships went on “manoeuvres” in the Mediterranean, but they remain close to the base in Tartus. I think behind the scenes Russia will be negotiating to keep the bases. If they had decided to give them up, there would have been an evacuation, he adds.
The naval base at Tartus is of greater strategic importance
Russia has inherited from the USSR the naval base in Tartus, formally called the material and technical provision point. And the Khmeimim air base appeared after Russia intervened in the war in Syria on the side of Assad's government forces in 2015. Austrian military historian Colonel Markus Reisner believes that the naval base is of greater strategic importance than the air force because it gives Russia the opportunity to “demonstrate power in the Mediterranean”.
British historian Mark Galeotti says both bases are “very important to Russian activity in the Mediterranean and in Africa”. It is interesting to observe how quickly Russia attempted to reach an agreement with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, notes Galeotti. “Until recently, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov called the group “terrorists”, and over the weekend they already started calling them “rebels”. The historian says that even before the fall of the Assad regime, Moscow's tone towards Islamist rebels had become “much kinder”.
What can Moscow offer the rebels in Syria?
„Russia is probably hoping for a deal with “Hayat Tahrir al-Sham”, Galeotti believes. But what can Moscow offer them? The historian points out that the rebels enjoy the support of Turkey, but “they do not want to be Turkish proxies– they will need allies and some external relations”. “The Russians are sufficiently cynical and pragmatic, and this may give a chance to “Hayat Tahrir al-Sham“ to diversify its dependence on Ankara”, suggests Galeotti. In this regard, he recalls that Moscow has not only a military presence, but also close economic contacts with Syria.
Burcu Ozcelik, who is a Middle East expert at the British think tank RUSI, does not think the rebels will be in a hurry to get closer to Moscow. “It is not very likely “Hayat Tahrir al-Sham“ quickly perceive Vladimir Putin as an ally or give a “green light” of Russia's long-term military presence on the Syrian Mediterranean coast. "Especially against the background of Russia's asylum to Assad," Ozcelik says. She predicts long negotiations in which the regional players, Russia and Iran, will try to adjust their foreign policy towards Syria.
The Russians have no good alternatives
However, if the Russian military has to leave Syria, where will they go? “They have no good options”, thinks Mark Galeotti. According to him, under Assad, Syria was very dependent on Moscow. There is no other such country in the region.
Among the possible options, the most frequently mentioned is Libya, where Russia maintains contacts with General Khalifa Haftar. Fighters from the "Wagner" group fought on his side. There have been reports in the Western press about Russia's intentions to establish a naval base in Libya, probably Tobruk, notes Markus Reisner.
According to Mark Galeotti, this option cannot be implemented quickly, there is no ready infrastructure there – the same is the case with the idea of a port in Sudan, on the coast of the Red Sea. Negotiations for this have not been going on since yesterday.
As for the air base, it – in the words of Galeotti – will require territorial control. “Wherever they go – in Libya, Mali, Sudan – the situation will not be the same as in Syria.“
The US also has a military presence in Syria
Other countries also maintain military facilities in Syria, writes the “Washington Post” newspaper. The main US base is in Tanf, on the Syrian border with Jordan, and Turkey has bases in Idlib and elsewhere in the north of the country. But Russian bases are much larger in scale, strategic importance and vulnerability.
The United States established its base in Tanf after the “Islamic State” seized the area around the border in 2015. The garrison is used to train US-backed rebel groups in Syria. The United States has also sent troops to areas in the northeast of the country controlled by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces. There are 900 US troops in Syria, the Pentagon said last week, most of them in that northeastern region.