We do not need a Nobel laureate or Tom Cruise to say what a four-party government could look like. It is surprising why the parties - and especially the largest party GERB - have not solved the problem so far.
It is time to call Tom Cruise to form a regular government in Bulgaria. The request to him will be not to clear the political scene, as he is used to on the screen, but to achieve the impossible with softer methods. His indisputable advantage is that he is equidistant from all Bulgarian parties. And he will not be too upset about the cordon sanitaire around Delyan Peevski, because of which Boyko Borisov does not sleep. Last but not least, Tom Cruise will garner more support for prime minister than Borisov, no matter how we measure things.
The possibilities for a government are more than clear
Ultimately, with so many options for solving the problem with the government, it is surprising why the parties - and especially the largest party GERB - have not solved it yet.
A little more, a month and a half after the elections, they have not started to solve this problem and are still at the stage of "familiar meetings" with each other, as well as the formation of "contact groups" - as if they were going to meet with Martians. First, Borisov was waiting for the chairman of the National Assembly to be elected and the parliamentary groups to be formed, so that the president could hand over the mandate to the largest party. Now that all this is a fact, we will still have to wait until after the New Year, because nothing has yet been agreed with anyone and the work, if it has been conceived at all, is in embryonic-cellular form. Some unscrupulous commentator would conclude that this is bad theater, which aims to pass the time in thoughts until the election of Borislav Sarafov as chief prosecutor and the announcement of new parliamentary elections in the spring. These two things are a priority for "DPS - New Beginning", but for some reason GERB is also working in this direction. Or maybe for some reason.
We don't need a Nobel laureate to calculate the formula for a possible coalition government or to say what a four-party government could look like. Even Tom Cruise is not needed, although if he agreed to become prime minister, things would be much easier. But since Christmas is coming, we should look at the situation positively and assume that the parties, and especially the first of them, are actually engaged in forming a government, and not something else. Otherwise, the problems facing the formation of a regular government are as follows, and none of them are insurmountable:
Prime Minister: This is the smallest problem and it could not hinder the work, unless GERB insists on Borisov all the way. But they are not insisting on him all the way now, so a solution could be reached. There are two options: a more expert option and a prime minister from GERB. Both options are familiar in parliamentary democracy. In complex coalitions with many and different parties, the more expert prime minister is more logical, but there are also arguments in favor of assuming political responsibility through political figures.
Cordon sanitaire and declaration: Since all potential GERB partners have made commitments from the declaration on the cordon sanitaire, we can assume that it is clear that it will be part of the program of a coalition government. Most of its elements have already been either fulfilled or are not problematic. Two are the most important: a legislative attempt to stop Sarafov's election and a boycott of "New Beginning" candidates for regulators and other bodies. GERB is worried (at least officially) about the constitutionality of the first measure and that is why they have asked the Constitutional Court about it. If it is unconstitutional according to the court, it will fall anyway, so it is strange why they are so eager to sign the declaration. The second problem - with the appointments to the regulators - is more serious and it actually broke the "rotation" two parliaments ago, i.e. a few months ago.
GERB seems to be insisting on a separate quota for the DPS (now "New Beginning") in these bodies, which would be different from the GERB quota. No one can forbid GERB from proposing and electing Peevski's people. But still, if Borisov is serious about governing without Peevski, he should make some commitments in this direction, with the "declaration" actually being the bare minimum of such a commitment. And this declaration also saves Borisov the effort of articulating exactly what the problem is with "New Beginning" and Delyan Peevski. So far, all he has said on this issue is that "there is no good DPS", but what that means is not very clear. In short, even for GERB it would be good to sign the declaration at some point, which would put the PP in a difficult situation - they would have no excuse for boycotting the negotiation process.
The division between the PP and the DB: This division, to the extent that it exists, does not prevent the formation of a government. Regarding this issue, both formations stand behind the declaration and what is set out in it - the DB will not enter a government on its own.
Program, responsibilities, fight against corruption
Program: The most worrying thing is that so far even this issue with the program has not been discussed, and it would generate the most serious agreement between the four parties. At least at first glance, there are no insurmountable obstacles from a program perspective to the formation of a cabinet. An agreement to reduce the overly inflated budget will certainly be found, and it must be found. Because at the moment, the draft budget submitted by the caretaker government is something between an attempt to sabotage the country's membership in the Eurozone and direct pre-election buying of services and the police. The only ones who support the inflated budget in its part for the security structures seem to be "New Beginning". And without being a conspiratorial person, one would still wonder why a party would need such courtship. Is it to cover up manipulations during the elections? Or to exert pressure on opponents - such as arrests and lifting of immunities?
Formula for dividing responsibilities: It would be best this time to have clear responsibility according to the political weight of the individual parties. GERB is indeed the largest, but without the other three parties a stable governing formula is impossible, especially if "Majesty" enters as the ninth party after the Constitutional Court's decision. Without claiming mathematical accuracy, the formula for distributing ministers should be something like 9:5:3:2. Of course, plus or minus one or two seats is a matter of agreement and the weight of the individual ministries, but the picture when a government is successfully formed will not be radically different. It is not good for one of the formations not to participate with ministers - this would dilute the responsibility for collective governance. The "rotational" formula of the "Denkov" government confirmed the wisdom of American President Lyndon Johnson, according to whom it is better for your opponents to be inside the tent and relieve themselves outside it than the other way around.
Sarafov and the fight against corruption: It is clear that GERB cannot seriously claim that they are trying to govern without Peevski and to take steps towards limiting the vicious model of governance with illegitimate influence on the court and prosecutor's office, if they make it possible for Borislav Sarafov to be re-elected. The argument that they do not interfere in the judiciary by not even having an opinion on the candidates for high positions in it is inadequate. Not only can they have an opinion, but they must have a political position on Sarafov's qualities. Just as they had for Geshev and then they did not shy away from it constitutionally.
Borisov made an attempt at the beginnings of such a position with the statement about Lena Borislavova's immunity. The attempt was good and should be assessed as a very brave act. But still, it cannot be qualified as a position, because in content it was streamlined, unclear and focused on the "woman mother". With a little more courage, a real position can be reached. And the courage here is not irony, because Borisov is right to be afraid - the moment Ivan Geshev "freed himself" from his commitments to GERB and DPS, he immediately brandished a bunch of cases of corpses against Borisov. Something like this can be expected now, which explains the caution of the GERB leader.
Forming a government is a decision that benefits the people
Things are generally clear - the formulas are in place, people for ministers and regulators will be found, and even Tom Cruise may be tempted to take over things in Bulgaria at this difficult time for it. There is, of course, some possibility that Tom Cruise is Delyan Peevski's hidden candidate for the post - if it was possible with Kalin Stoyanov, one must still keep one thing in mind. But in politics, such risks are inevitable and they should not stop well-intentioned politicians from making obvious, people-benefiting decisions.
And forming a regular government is exactly such a decision.
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This comment expresses the author's personal opinion and may not coincide with the positions of the Bulgarian editorial office and the State Gazette as a whole.