Moldova is about to enter a second term as President Maia Sandu, firmly determined to continue the country's pro-European course. A new edition of the Constitution is already on sale in bookstores in Chisinau with a text about the irreversibility of the country's European integration, and EU membership is declared in it as a strategic goal - in accordance with the results of the referendum held on October 20, 2024.
However, the majority of votes in favor of European membership was minimal - 50.4 percent. The division of society along geopolitical lines with a slight advantage of pro-European sentiments, as well as vulnerability to Russian propaganda, are making experts increasingly compare Moldova with Georgia, where the ruling party has begun an anti-European turn, and point out the risk of a repeat of the “Georgian scenario" in Moldova.
Half of Moldovans are EU citizens
The country's pro-European authorities took the results of the vote as a cold shower - for them, as well as for many Moldovans, European integration was something that went without saying, something inevitable that you don't necessarily need to fight for. Thanks to their dual citizenship, i.e. having Romanian passports, Moldovans have been able to work in EU countries without any problems for ten years. Today, the Moldovan diaspora includes about one million people out of a total population of 2.7 million. In 2023, the volume of money transfers from abroad to Moldova via bank transfers alone exceeded $1.6 billion.
At the same time, residents of Chisinau admit that when working in EU countries or traveling around them, they see prices rising there. And they fear that this could happen in Moldova too, if European legislation is to be implemented. For example, with an average salary of 500 euros, the overhead costs for a one-room apartment in Chisinau are only 50 euros, and a coffee in a restaurant costs one euro.
How poor is the “poorest country in Europe”?
Moldova is often called the “poorest country in Europe”, but in terms of living standards it is ahead of a number of countries from the former USSR. According to official statistics, citizens' incomes increased by 15 percent in 2023, and budget revenues increased by 12 percent.
Moldovians have long ceased to be interested in the standard of living in the CIS - they are oriented towards European levels. And judging, for example, by real estate prices, they are starting to approach them. In Chisinau, the price per square meter in newly built cooperatives has risen to 1,300 euros. Although prices continue to rise, apartments worth 100,000 euros are not enough for everyone.
And the money spent by Moldovans on vacations and excursions in 2024 is more than 540 million euros - the approximate equivalent of Moldova's wine exports for five years. 860,000 are the country's citizens who were able to afford a vacation.
With all the advantages of the EU, the presence of a Romanian passport for most citizens did not become a mobilizing factor in voting for Moldova's own entry into the Community. Some Moldovans have settled well in the West and do not understand the problems of their homeland. And "the mythology of the poorest country in Europe is used by some parties to push their populist agenda," says European integration expert Andrei Cureraru to the website ipn.md. He adds that if the fears of the population are played on, there is a risk of a “Georgian scenario”.
The risk of a “Georgian scenario” for Moldova
According to the expert, such a “stress test” is ahead for Moldova next fall during the parliamentary elections. He expects that the next government will be a coalition, but it is not clear who will form the coalition, since the rating of a number of pro-European forces is lower than the one needed to enter parliament.
Political analyst Victor Ciobanu, for his part, is convinced that a “Georgian scenario” developed in Moscow is also being prepared for Moldova. Its strategic goal is the formation of a pro-Russian parliamentary majority, which will also appoint the government.
However, Moldova differs significantly from Georgia. Two-thirds of the country's economy is oriented towards the EU and only ten - towards the CIS. And in Georgia, it is exactly the opposite - up to 70 percent of exports go to the CIS.
Andrei Cureraru points out that there are three key factors that distinguish Moldova from Georgia. This is, first of all, the geographical location - between NATO and EU member Romania and Ukraine, which also aspires to membership in both organizations. The second factor is the dual citizenship and European passports of more than half of the population of Moldova. The third aspect is historical - Moldova has not recently had a war with Russia, respectively, there are no fears of direct aggression. The events of 1992 in Moldova, as a result of which the unrecognized Transnistrian Republic was proclaimed, are already a distant past, Cureraru notes.