The surprising fall of the regime in Syria has been greeted with cautious optimism by many in Iran who hope for regime change in the Islamic Republic. They see parallels between their problems and those of the people in Syria. For Iran, the fall of Assad is of utmost importance because Syria is an important part of Tehran's regional strategy. Many Iranians hope for a change in their regime, especially after the brutal suppression of the women's rights protests under the slogan "Women, Life, Freedom".
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei made a statement about the events in Damascus. He warned that analyses of the situation in Syria should not discourage people and anyone who dares to make statements in this direction is committing a crime. It is clear that the regime in Tehran is worried about a domino effect in the region after the overthrow of the Syrian regime. Moreover, the fall of Assad once again demonstrates the problems of the authoritarian regime.
The Iranian leadership probably fears that such destabilizing factors, as well as widespread economic difficulties and weakening regional alliances, could resonate in the country and threaten its own stability.
Regime supporters are shocked
Hossein Razah, a political activist and former prisoner who was repeatedly detained during the 2009 protests, believes that the most loyal supporters of the regime in Tehran are worried about the fall of Assad. For those connected to the authorities and the military, it is of paramount importance that the regime survives. "Assad's fall shocked hardliners in Iran," says Razah. "This situation has shaken the propaganda machine of the Islamic Republic. Many of the regime's extreme supporters now doubt whether Iran is also facing a catastrophe."
According to him, the loss of trust among the regime's most loyalists is unprecedented, even compared to other crises such as the protests in 2009, those in 2019 and the shooting down of the Ukrainian plane over Iran in 2020. "The psychological state of society is such that any spark, be it the death of Khamenei or another major problem, will mark the beginning of the end for the regime," the activist believes.
The domino effect is not unprecedented in the Middle East
Hasan Asadi Zeydabadi, another Iranian political activist, emphasizes that dissatisfaction with the regime's inefficiency and corruption is growing in the country. "What led to Assad's downfall was a crisis of legitimacy and incompetence," he says. "The same is true for the Iranian government, which is increasingly unable to meet even the most basic needs of its citizens."
Zeidabadi points to problems such as fuel shortages, power outages, internet restrictions and widespread pollution. These ongoing crises are fueling public discontent and anger, and increasing tensions between citizens and government. The activist draws parallels with other historical events. "The nationalization of oil in Iran sparked similar movements in Egypt, while the 2009 protests played a role in the start of the Arab Spring. Similarly, the Arab Spring led to the arrests of leaders of the Iranian protest movement."
However, he notes that Iran does not necessarily have to follow Syria's path. "While geopolitical and historical dynamics in the Middle East often intertwine the fates of different countries, this does not automatically mean that Iran will fall victim to the domino effect."
"Assad's collapse demonstrates how little influence Tehran has"
Political activist Mehdi Mahmoudian attributes the collapse of trust in the Islamic Republic to its multiple failures to address key domestic issues and its loss of influence among both citizens and the international community.
Mahmoudian emphasizes the regime's inability to deliver on its promises of economic relief or maintain stability. "The regime has lost its legitimacy and its ability to function," he says. "Assad's collapse demonstrates how little influence Tehran has in negotiations with the West."
The activist called on Western governments to adopt a more strategic approach to supporting regime change in Iran. "The West has focused on economic interests at the expense of human rights in Iran." Mahmoudian advocates for tougher international sanctions targeting the regime's leadership while easing restrictions that harm ordinary citizens. "Instead of direct intervention, Western countries should focus on strengthening civil society in Iran," he added. The overthrow of Assad has fueled a sense that regime change in Iran is possible, and more and more Iranians are wondering whether the end of the Islamic Republic is near.