If one were to try to describe the situation in Georgia in one word, hopelessness or crisis would be among the first associations, says independent political scientist Gela Vasadze. This is the feeling in the country right now. "We are observing a political, social, economic and moral crisis caused by the government," the expert says.
For weeks, tens of thousands of Georgians have been protesting across the country - first against the results of the parliamentary elections in late October, when the ruling "Georgian Dream" party won a majority in parliament. The opposition claims that the vote was rigged. Since last weekend, the protests have also been directed against the election of a new president, who for the first time was elected not directly by the people, but by a parliamentary commission, where "Georgian Dream" once again has a majority. The opposition also considers this election illegitimate.
The protests are led by the current president, Salome Zurabishvili. Her term ends on December 29, but she refuses to step down because she believes her successor, Mikhail Kavelashvili, was elected illegitimately.
There is a lack of institutional support for the protests
Despite the strong support and tenacity of the protesters, the political situation remains unchanged for now, and "Georgian Dream" is consolidating its forces. Political scientist Vasadze believes that there are two reasons for this. First, the authorities are confronting the protests with a very firm hand. On the other hand, the demonstrations have no institutional support. "We see a reaction from society, but no political process," says Vasadze. "At the moment, it is not the opposition that is fighting the status quo, but the active part of society."
But the will of the people alone cannot change the status quo. "Opposition politicians are aware of this", says the expert. "But they don't know what to do. They want new elections, but they don't know how to achieve this goal. No one sees a real mechanism for changing the balance of power."
Korneli Kakahia of the Georgian Institute of Foreign Policy also complains about the general feeling of insecurity. "The situation is very unstable", he warns. At the moment, no one can predict what will happen on December 29, when the new head of state is supposed to take office, and at the same time, the current president will not voluntarily step down.
Three scenarios for Georgia
Kakahia points out three possible scenarios for the country's future. The first of them: "If nothing changes, Georgia will resemble Serbia". He has in mind the course of the government in Belgrade, which officially aims to join the European Union, but at the same time supports pro-Russian policies.
The second, "worse" scenario, Kakahia calls "the Belarusization of Georgia". The expert has in mind the potential creation of a government that suppresses protests increasingly brutally and detains demonstrators - as happened in Belarus after the 2020 presidential elections. The consequences of this scenario would be the same as for Minsk - "increasing isolation and stronger authoritarianism".
The third possible scenario is something like a second "Rose Revolution". In 2003, young Georgian reformist politicians organized peaceful protests under the slogan "roses instead of bullets for the enemy". No blood was shed, and the culmination of the revolution was the change of government. To get there, however, it is necessary for the government to succumb to pressure from the streets. That is not the case now, says Kakahia. At the same time, this scenario also contains risks. The deterioration of relations with Russia would be dangerous. Kakahia believes that Moscow will do everything possible to harm Georgia - from an economic embargo to direct interference in the work of a potential new government.
Last chance on December 29?
Renata Skardzyute-Kereselidze from the Georgian Institute of Foreign Policy believes that there is still a chance for pro-European forces in Georgia. According to her, they are preparing for the "culmination of the protests" on December 29. "We have seen that the protests are becoming more diverse and are taking place not only in the capital Tbilisi, but also in other places in the country". Now everything also depends on the support of the EU and the US. At the moment, there is a kind of competition for "world attention". At the same time, it is much more difficult for the opposition to continue dialogue, since - unlike when the protests began - it is now acting more illegally.
The protests are also becoming fewer and fewer. Many Georgians who voted for "Georgian Dream" fear that the situation could develop like the one in Ukraine in 2014. Then Ukrainians protested for months against pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych. In the end, he was overthrown, but blood was shed. On the other hand, supporters of the ruling party believe that only "Georgian Dream" can prevent war with Russia. This was also the main election promise of the party of billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili - peace with Russia.
Author: Yuri Resheto