Comment by Emilia Milcheva:
The Russian gas pipeline turned out to be an umbilical cord connecting Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, Bulgarian President Rumen Radev and GERB leader Boyko Borisov, who called it the "pipe of friendship". At the end of the Hungarian presidency of the Council of the EU, Orban visited Bulgaria at the invitation of the presidency due to concerns that the blue fuel sent by his good friend Putin might not reach Hungary due to sanctions imposed on the Russian payments bank. These fears were packaged in a round of applause for Bulgaria's accession to Schengen, which happened precisely during the Hungarian presidency.
However, the political effects of the visit go beyond the gas problem, which emerged after the US imposed sanctions on Gazprombank, from which Bulgaria also receives fees for the transit of Russian gas via "Turkish Stream". Washington temporarily lifted the sanctions - for 3 months, which means that a long-term solution is vitally needed for buyers of the blue fuel Turkey, Hungary, Slovakia and Moldova, especially for Hungary, which has no alternatives. And while despite the postponement, however, transactions related to the "Paks-2" nuclear power plant, which "Rosatom" builds in Hungary, remain banned.
Orban climbs Bulgarian politics
If folklore and the president's nickname are to be believed, for Bulgaria 2025 will be like Orban, because "Ignazden's first guest determines the year" and he is very happy that the guest is Viktor Orban with his "sober assessment of geopolitical processes". It seems that for Rumen Radev, the Orbanization of Bulgaria is the best New Year's luck: Putin's peace for Ukraine, no sanctions for Russia, "salvation" of the economy with Chinese loans, blocked EU funds and hard nationalism and conservatism.
In addition - support for the European integration of the Western Balkans, but without Brussels' interference in the national affairs of the countries in the region, i.e. not to "dictate" conditions. For Bulgaria, this would mean agreeing to ignore the so-called "French proposal" by Skopje, which lifted the Bulgarian veto on the membership negotiations. It was fundamental for the start of EU membership negotiations, as it envisaged changes to the Macedonian Constitution to include Bulgarians as a recognized minority.
And Bulgarian interests and European values?
However, the ruling VMRO-DPMNE distanced itself from it, and Hungary granted asylum to former Prime Minister and long-time leader of VMRO-DPMNE Nikola Gruevski, who was accused of corruption and sentenced to 7 years in prison. In fact, "Organization" of Bulgarian-Macedonian relations would mean not only abandoning Bulgarian national interests, but also the fundamental principles of the EU.
The Western Balkans are becoming an arena of strategic competition between the EU and Russia, with Serbia, which actively supports Macedonian nationalism, playing a significant role in this process. This would increase geopolitical instability in the region, creating conditions for deviation from Euro-Atlantic values in favor of Russian influence. And countries in the region would find themselves in a difficult position between the two geopolitical blocs, without a clearly defined course for their future development in the EU.
It is not surprising that Rumen Radev shares these views, but decisions on specific foreign policy initiatives and strategic issues are primarily within the powers of the government and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Bulgarian society is witness to what happens when the president represents Bulgaria at meetings of the European Council, when managing caretaker governments appointed by him. In March 2023. for example, he stated that if Bulgaria sells ammunition to other EU member states, he will set conditions for it not to be provided to Ukraine. Few European leaders share his pro-Russian positions.
"Thanks to Viktor…"
The agreement with Ukraine in the field of security, which was left on "standby" with the help of Boyko Borisov, shows that attempts are being made for a Trumpist turn. Bulgaria stands alongside Hungary, which also did not approve the agreement, with the formal argument of the caretaker Prime Minister Dimitar Glavchev that he is concerned about its 10-year term. But it could also be concerned about its content, including support for the creation of an international tribunal to investigate and prosecute war crimes committed during the Russian aggression in Ukraine.
Borisov's assurance that a regular government will sign the agreement is not convincing - such guarantees can only be given by the government and the majority that will issue it. However, the hug with his friend Orban says a lot, as do the thanks to "Victor and the Hungarian Schengen presidency for what they did, and of course to Ursula von der Leyen".
How do the cordialities with Orban relate to the promises of a "pro-European and anti-corruption government", what signals are coming from the negotiators for a regular cabinet GERB-SDS and "Democratic Bulgaria"? In Hungary, "friend Viktor" has taken a number of measures that restrict media freedom, judicial independence and civil liberties, concentrating more and more power in his hands.
Hungary is the most corrupt country in the EU according to Transparency International's 2023 Corruption Perceptions Index, followed by Bulgaria. Orbán and his conservative nationalist Fidesz party are associated with misuse of public funds, favoritism of business partners and deepening clientelism in the political system. The rule of law is considered to be the weakest again in Hungary and Bulgaria.
With the smell of gas
Orbán's "gas" diplomacy is trying to solve a problem that will arise after the 3 months have passed. Hungary consumes nearly 9 billion cubic meters of gas per year, 7 billion of which pass through the Bulgarian part of "Turkish Stream". Putin saw the pipeline as an opportunity for "Gazprom" to increase supplies after the end of transit through Ukraine. The capacity of the pipeline reserved by "Gazprom" until 2030 is 15.75 billion cubic meters, but it is not filled. If the volumes were increased, it would be life-saving for the company - and for the Russian budget, as Russian gas supplies to Europe have dropped significantly since the start of the war. In 2019, they reached 180 billion cubic meters, and for 2023 they have dropped more than six times - to 28.3 billion cubic meters.
Since the launch of the pipeline through Bulgaria on January 1, 2022, until the end of March 2024, "Bulgartransgaz" has received a total of 1.3 billion leva in revenue, with maintenance costs for the route of 44 million. leva, "Mediapool" reported some time ago. The country does not receive natural gas through this gas pipeline, it is delivered to Hungary, Serbia, North Macedonia, Slovakia. No answers were received to questions sent by Deutsche Welle to the Ministry of Energy about how much revenue from transit fees is until the end of November and how much goes to repay the loan for the construction of the gas pipeline. In the name of "Turkish Stream", Borisov's third cabinet abandoned the transit gas pipeline through Ukraine and Romania to Turkey and did not even ask for compensation.
Orban's sympathizers in Bulgaria are many
This is not the first time the Bulgarian authorities have helped Hungary. Orban thanked yesterday for the Russian nuclear fuel it receives through Bulgaria. Before the war, Budapest used train compositions through the territory of Ukraine. But since 2022 Since then, deliveries have been made by ships escorted by the military across the Black Sea to the port of Varna and from there to Hungary by train.
President Radev willingly takes on the role of a goodwill ambassador for Russian gas. The contract with the Turkish state company "Botaş", concluded by his caretaker government, provides Bulgaria with access to Turkey's gas infrastructure, but also reinforces its dependence on Russian energy supplies passing through Turkish territory. Another head of state - Georgi Parvanov, had also taken up a master plan for Bulgarian energy, written in Moscow. It is no secret that Orban has many sympathizers and imitators in Bulgaria. His kind hosts will take care of the gas problem. However, a cordon sanitaire is needed for Orbanization.