The US has doubled the number of its troops in Syria. Turkey is there with its troops and is even pushing the Syrian Kurdish organization, YPG, west of the Euphrates. Israel is expanding its territory in Syria. They say that Damascus is crowded with intelligence officers from all over the world. All the so-called great countries are sending representatives to meet with Joulani, now Sharaa, because he has been designated as the head in Damascus and the talks with him are by name.
Putin said at his annual press conference that they have contacts with all the players on the ground, including Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, HTS, and even offered the West to use the Russian air base, Hmeimim, in Latakia for the delivery of humanitarian aid that the Westerners plan to deliver to the Syrians. Joulani himself claims that he has no desire to fight with his neighbors and that Israel will withdraw from Syrian territory if possible. He will disband the HTS groups and integrate them into the army. It is not clear exactly which army, but the West likes this.
Everyone is talking, but there are no real negotiations. Are they also waiting for Trump to take office? While with all their moves they are clarifying their strongest positions with which to sit at the negotiating table.
At this time, tens of thousands of people are in the squares in response to statements by HTS spokesman Arnaut that women's rights should be regulated by Sharia law. When it is said that “it is not appropriate for women to hold certain positions due to their biological nature” and "women's freedoms are restricted in accordance with Sharia law", this brings Syrians to "Omayyad Square" demanding a "secular and democratic state".
The chants are "We want democracy, not theocracy" and "No free women, no free state". A sit-in in central Damascus with tens of thousands of people is in response to the newly established interim government and demands for a secular state and against unacceptable policies that restrict women's rights. The posters are "No Sharia" and "We want a civilized state".
This is just a week after Joulani, with HTS and other groups, entered Damascus unmolested. The saying that "the wolf changes its fur, but not its temper" remains valid even if they rebrand themselves with European clothes and a trimmed beard.
What is happening in the big cities of Syria after Assad's departure has hardly found a place in the mainstream media in the West. But reports of mass killings of Alawites and Christians, of social unrest in Aleppo and the coastal regions, and violence in neighborhoods of Hama and Homs are becoming more frequent. The Turkish press is not spared either.
17 different armed factions, 60-70 thousand people, have settled in the region, threatening the Alawite population. Although Joulani, the leader of HTS, promised to “take control of the situation,” no steps have been taken. Social media is constantly showing footage of neighborhoods in Hama and Homs where Alawite citizens are being thrown out of their homes and beaten in the streets.
Christians in Aleppo face the same danger, and a significant portion of this population is migrating. The Druze in southern Syria are calling for autonomy. Sheikh Hikmat al-Hajri, the leader of the Druze community in Sweida, has called for the creation of a decentralized administration in the country in the new period. “We categorically refuse to be dominated by any factional, party, religious or regional authority,” says Hajri.
In fact, the unrest in Sweida began in 2011 and is 90% Druze. Then the 13-year Syrian civil war began. Today, 700,000 Druze live in Suez and the Golan Heights, and 150,000 in Israel. They are the only non-Israeli population serving in the Israeli army. They feel close to Israel, and some Syrian Druze would be willing to join Tel Aviv.
Following Trump's statement that there had been a "hostile takeover by Ankara" in Syria, Hakan Fidan, Turkey's foreign minister, said that "it is a serious mistake to describe the situation in Syria as a seizure of power." This is the will of the Syrian people”, but Putin, by the way, did not fail to state that Ankara had opened the way for Tel Aviv to Syria, thus indicating that the beneficiaries of Assad leaving Damascus were the US and Israel, while Turkey had played a supporting role with its support for years of opposition Islamist groups, which, together with HTS, entered Damascus.
The exact words are “the real winner in Syria is Israel”. A consequence of a previously held one-hour conversation with Netanyahu? And whether Ankara holds the key to resolving the turmoil in Syria is a matter of the future and the positioning of all players on the chessboard. For now, the head of the MIT, the national intelligence service, Ibrahim Kalin, was visiting Damascus, but information is becoming more frequent that Erdogan's visit to the Syrian capital is on the agenda, and in the next 15 days.
Erdogan is expected to meet with Joulani and visit the “Umayyad” mosque. With this visit, international flights from Turkey to Syria will also be restored, and the consulate will be reactivated in Aleppo after the Turkish embassy in Damascus began operating. This along with actions to prevent the creation of an independent state entity for the Kurds in Syria, who are under the protection of the US. Despite the fact that their leader, Qolani, has an invitation to attend Trump's inauguration on January 20.
It became known that Joulani or Sharaa was considering granting citizenship to the "foreign fighters" who acted with HTS when entering Damascus. They deserved to be "rewarded". Even during the rule of Idlib, HTS worked with foreign groups that came to Syria after 2011.
It is alleged that they wanted Salafi jihad and Sharia order. They gained combat experience in Syria in order to open new fronts in their own countries. First on the list of targets are Russia and China. Military formations that trained terrorists also operated with them in Idlib. Among them is the formation of Ukrainian special services, which trained and supplied drones to the fighters in exchange for their involvement in the war in Ukraine against the Russians.
The war in Syria was like a "market" in the Middle East, but also an opportunity to provide consulting services to Joulani. Now they are advertising themselves with their "role in the fall of Damascus".
The list of some of the terrorist groups is interesting. The most popular of them, working with HTS, is Xhemati Alban, which was created by jihadists recruited from Albania, Kosovo, North Macedonia, and the Presevo Valley in Serbia. The leader is Abdul Yasari, born in Skopje, 48 years old. Another larger terrorist group is Yurtugh Tactical, founded by Uighurs. The main goal of the group was China and the fight against the “oppressive Chinese regime in order to liberate their homeland from occupation”.
The creation of a sovereign state of East Turkestan is an ideal for them. Groups of Tajik and Kyrgyz origin follow. The majority of the groups are with fighters from Central Asia – “Imam Bukhari” from Uzbekistan, the Chechen group “Ehnadul Kavkaz”, from Kazakhstan, Dagestan, Azerbaijan and even Ukraine. They say that after the war in Chechnya, the Caucasian fighters moved first to Turkey, and then to Syria and organized themselves into several groups.
The role of Turkey is undeniable. And the goals are for these terrorists to return after Syria, but already trained and experienced in combat operations. They all went through Al-Qaeda, then al-Nusra, then integrated into HTS, and the leader is Omar Shishani, who has already been killed 5 times. As they say, let Moscow think about it. But among the terrorist groups there are also fighters from Afghanistan, Morocco, Pakistan, Iraq, Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia. All of them, who helped Joulani enter Damascus, are now waiting for citizenship.
The participation of parts of the Islamic State, ISIS, which has often been a useful "apparatus" for the US, by finding refuge in Idlib and joining the ranks of HTS, should not be overlooked. These are the groups that are said to have reoriented and will unite all ethnicities in Syria.
Against this background, Israel and the opposition competed for the patronage of the PKK / YPG. As if this was not enough for the US. There is open talk of “Kurdistan must gain independence”. And even “Erdogan being kicked out of NATO”. Israel, after taking the Golan Heights, insists on “Kurdistan”.
Jolani, the Turks, “has been handing out blue beads to the West”, the US is threatening Turkey with sanctions, and Ankara is preparing for a military operation in Northern Syria to eliminate the PKK/YPG, almost. But there are already signs of postponement, because, Fidan tells “Al Jazeera”, the new administration in Damascus is handling the PKK/YPG issue properly.
So there will be no operation, but Erdogan will go to Damascus. And he will insist that HTS is no longer a terrorist organization. And Putin says that “the situation in Syria today is not easy, but we are waiting for peace and tranquility to come there”.
In fact, Moscow has remained calm regarding the events in Syria, although the West has called what happened “checkmate for Russia” and ”the biggest geopolitical slap in the face for Putin”. We will live, we will see, say the Russians.