Comment by Emilia Milcheva:
How does GERB kiss? Of their former allies, there are living dead such as “Ataka”, RZS or NFSB, who can share, while others have been warned not to kiss. Political exhaustion, as well as the loss of identity, electoral support and influence are inevitable when tied to Boyko Borisov's party, and the possibility of (postmortem) rehabilitation is uncertain. Politician Maya Manolova, whose party “Stand Up, Bulgaria” is part of the BSP-United Left (OL), defined as “the kiss of death” future joint government of BSP-OL with GERB. (Although thanks to the support of GERB Manolova was elected Ombudsman in July 2015)
Nevertheless, the contours of the regular government are already being outlined, which GERB-SDF is putting together with BSP and “There is such a people” (ITN), and the parliamentary majority will also be joined by the DPS - “Democracy, Rights and Freedoms” positioned around Ahmed Dogan. The future cabinet looks like a mirror of all the weaknesses of the Bulgarian political system of the last three decades - compromises, blurring of ideological boundaries and dependence on hidden centers of power.
A sweet death - in the name of the people
However, the BSP is ready to die this sweet death, because the state needs stable governance, the socialists will implement their ideas for social reform and improve the quality of life of Bulgarians. With these arguments, the BSP National Council approved participation in the future coalition - with an enviable majority of 102 votes “for”, 13 “against” and seven abstentions.
In contrast, “Positano” 20 receives four ministries and the deputy prime minister's chair in order to accommodate apparatchiks in them, two of whom will fight for the leadership position in the party at the congress in February. Thus, the BSP became the first of the three political forces negotiating for a regular government to officially announce their representatives in it. The post of deputy prime minister is planned for the interim chairman Atanas Zafirov, the regional ministry for MP Ivan Ivanov, the organizational secretary Borislav Gutsanov receives the social ministry, MP Manol Genov - the Ministry of Environment and Water, and Sofia municipal councilor Ivan Peshev - the Ministry of Youth and Sports.
Zafirov and Gutsanov are among the candidates for the BSP leader, and there is now speculation that the congress in February may change the statute to abolish the direct election of the chairman and have him elected by the delegates. This makes the future coalition government an arena for intra-party ambitions.
“The entire left has gone down the drain”
Former BSP chairwoman Kornelia Ninova did not miss the opportunity to criticize her former party members with a post on Facebook: “The entire left has gone down the drain. Borisov killed another party. No, 20 more parties in total. There will be a Borisov government, with Peevski peeking behind, with BSP cheerleaders and dependent on Dogan's golden finger”.
There is not a trace of the left. With the depersonalization of the BSP, which has fallen to the fifth political force, and the marginalization of small left-wing formations, Bulgaria is left without an authentic left-wing alternative. If the “kiss of death” accelerated this collapse, will not one emerge - but not according to Ninova's conservative canons, but another one that draws energy from global trends towards social justice and green transformation?
Otherwise, there will be a complete political desert on the left spectrum, dominated by parties that are diluted in coalitions with GERB or other representatives of the status quo. And the traditional voters of the BSP will turn onto the already trodden paths towards “Vazrazhdane” and other such similarities.
And here again the “balancer”
Ninova's warning about the “golden finger” should not be ignored, however. The Alliance for Rights and Freedoms (ARF) has declared its readiness to participate in talks to achieve “a broader agreement on important priorities for the country, including talks on forming a regular government”. Dogan's MRF will have a key role - it will add the much-needed votes for a majority of 126 MPs.
The weight of this party in a future government is expected to be disproportionate to the MPs it has, and to some extent repeat its role in the “triple coalition”, remembered for the serious suspicions of corruption. The reason is that it is quite realistic to include a ninth formation such as “Majesty” in the 51st National Assembly with 10-12 mandates - which will reduce the number of the others. And since there is no way to enlarge the coalition, greater compromises will be made.
Instability and crises are inevitable
A coalition government that unites otherwise incompatible parties and relies on a "golden finger" is doomed to instability and frequent crises. Formally, GERB will register success if it imposes it, since it has failed to form a government seven times since 2021.
The opposition to such a coalition government is likely to be PP-DB, along with "Vazrazhdane", MECH and DPS-New Beginning. Liberal-reformers are lining up alongside anti-European and pro-Russian forces and the party led by an oligarch. For "Democratic Bulgaria", which was negotiating with GERB, and for "Continuing Change", this alliance can be attacked as a symbol of political unprincipledness. In its role as opposition, the PP-DB coalition could win back lost voters.
The first cabinet with a GERB mandate is about to be formed, in which Boyko Borisov will not be prime minister. But this does not bode well for stability.