After seven unsuccessful attempts, GERB-SDF may well head a cabinet. But not with Prime Minister Boyko Borisov, but with Rosen Zhelyazkov. GERB-SDF, BSP and “There is such a people” (ITN) are the sure ones. In order to have a parliamentary majority, which will largely guarantee stability, Ahmed Dogan's “Democracy, Rights and Freedoms” is expected to join them. If there are four parties, they will have 126 votes. (GERB (69 MPs), ITN (18), BSP (20), “Democracy, Rights and Freedoms“ (19)
Realistically speaking, ITN (they fought to get Borisov out of the way) and BSP (in principle “never with Borisov“, but now in the name of the state, justified by the decision of the BSP National Assembly – “the comrades decided so“ with an enviable majority of 102 votes “for”, 13 “against” and seven abstained) are reaching for power as Borisov's appendage.
What happens when you get an appendage – “the kiss of death“
Reformist Bloc, “Attack”, RZS, NFSB know best what it is to be a gadget. After GERB came to power, they are gone. And they were exactly that - just gadgets at a given time, under given circumstances. To survive in and after GERB came to power, you have to be monolithic as a party. Are the BSP and ITN like that? Or will this really be the “kiss of death“, as Maya Manolova, who is part of the BSP-United Left, said, in reality.
Dogan's role
Here we find ourselves in an absolutely new political situation that hardly anyone thought could happen, but it is a fact. When you have two MRFs - one governing, the other in opposition. For Dogan's MRF, it is extremely important that there are no new elections, as Delyan Peevski is insisting on. In a new vote, Dogan will lose, and Peevski will grow. Such is the reality. So for the people around Dogan it is good to support a cabinet, if they also have ministers – even better. That way they will directly limit Delyan Peevski's actions through the government. And the longer this continues, the better. The further forward in time the next elections are postponed, the better. Time heals. And so somehow strangely fate arranges things that Peevski's power directly sends Dogan into Borisov's lap this time.
The Opposition
We are heading towards a cabinet, and the opposition is shaping up to be PP-DB, “Vazrazhdane”, MECH and DPS-New Beginning. PP-DB, who constantly claimed never with “Vazrazhdane”, will now be with them – more forcefully, of course. “Democratic Bulgaria”, which was negotiating with GERB, is in a rather uncomfortable situation compared to “We continue the change”, which by distancing themselves from negotiations have reaped dividends. DB will certainly be a little “trampled” by PP in making future decisions, and that is completely natural. Also, this alliance, which is still surviving because PP and DB are losing separately, will certainly be attacked because of the unprincipledness shown towards GERB - that one half. For “Vazrazhdane” to be in opposition is normal, and we will see from MECH their actions whether they will remain intact as a parliamentary group.