Delhi wants to withdraw the Indians who are fighting on the side of Russia against Ukraine. The Russian dictator's small victorious war has failed. And this is clear even to those who have not felt any particular sympathy for Ukraine.
The unrest surrounding the testimonies of North Korean fighters captured in Ukraine has not yet subsided, and now India has asked Russia to release all Indian citizens from military service on the front lines in Ukraine.
According to reports in the Indian press, the country's authorities have taken the matter to the Russian embassy in Delhi, and the Indian embassy in the Russian capital has taken the appropriate steps in Moscow. The reason is the death of the tenth Indian citizen on the front in Ukraine.
Recruitment of foreign citizens by fraud
Not only Indians, but also citizens of Nepal and Sri Lanka are recruited by the Russian authorities to serve in the army for money and with promises that they and their relatives will receive Russian citizenship. This is precisely the difference with the completely disenfranchised North Koreans. For the Kim Jong-un regime, they are simply a bargaining chip, a living currency. Pyongyang uses it to buy Russian raw materials and military technology. According to South Korean intelligence services, at least three hundred North Koreans have already paid for this "mutually beneficial exchange" with their lives.
The situation is different with citizens of India, Sri Lanka and Nepal - they are simply lured by recruiters who lie to them that they will serve in auxiliary units in Russia and will not be sent to the front. However, after signing the relevant contract, they end up right there - on the front line.
On the one hand, it is a personal decision of every adult person whether to become a mercenary or not. But on the other hand, it is not good to use deception to attract people, condemning them to almost certain death. Setting a trap for foreigners, who are often poor and ill-informed, is more than bad.
Russia's image in the global South
The government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi has repeatedly asked the Kremlin to allow Indian citizens, tricked into fighting, to return home. Moscow released some of them, but continued to recruit new candidates. This did not prevent the same Indian government from buying Russian oil at a deep discount. But now Delhi seems to be hardening its tone.
The point, in my opinion, is not only that three years after the start of the war, when there was talk that Kiev would be taken in just two weeks, Russia's image as a global counterweight to the United States has faded greatly even in Asian and African countries, which usually keep their distance from European conflicts.
Incompetence and blunders
The incompetence of the "Arbat Military District" and other structures of the Russian regime also does not cease to remind of itself - just remember the blunder with the military tickets of North Korean soldiers issued in the names of Tuvans or Buryats. It is also shown by the poorly concealed racism: "We take care of our own, but we do not grieve for those who are not white". The rapid fall of the Assad regime in Syria has also raised doubts about the Kremlin's ability and willingness to defend its allies.
The last few weeks and days have been marked by new US sanctions against the Russian oil industry. Both India and China are already experiencing significant difficulties in buying oil from Putin. Moreover, it is unlikely that the next US administration will lift these sanctions. Trump is a supporter of the development of traditional hydrocarbon energy in the US and will not make life easier for his competitors.
Will China order Kim Jong-un?
Against this background, not only being an ally of Russia, but even being perceived as one, can cost you dearly. It is better to keep your distance from Moscow, at least temporarily, and see how US-Russian relations develop. And using an angry tone towards the Kremlin can make you look like an uncompromising defender of national interests – as Modi is doing now and as others are likely to do more and more often.
We cannot be sure that Xi Jinping will not order Kim Jong-un to stop sending troops to Putin in order to establish a dialogue with the new administration in Washington. After all, Beijing is North Korea's main ally and economic partner, and it is thanks to China's support that the North Korean regime has survived for many years. Against the backdrop of the very likely deterioration of relations with the Trump administration, which considers China its main enemy, Comrade Xi may well make such a gesture of goodwill.
Attracting foreign troops will become increasingly difficult for Putin
For example, to say: we in the Politburo of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China are “for peace“ - just like Trump and his Vice President Vance. After India's statement, attracting people from the Global South to the war against Ukraine will become increasingly difficult for Putin.
The demands to “bring our boys home“ will sound more and more distinct and louder. The Russian dictator's small victorious war has failed. And this is clear even to those who have not felt and continue to feel no particular sympathy for Ukraine.
This comment expresses the personal opinion of the author and may not coincide with the positions of the Bulgarian editorial office and DW as a whole.