It is already a fact: Bulgaria has a regular government. The "Zhelyazkov" cabinet started with clear assets and liabilities, and the trigger for the end of the new government is in the hands of the rulers themselves. Or in the hands of the one who is peeking behind them.
Comment from Veselin Stoynev:
The government of the quadruple coalition 3+1 (GERB, BSP, ITN, DPS-Dogan) starts with clearly outlined assets and liabilities.
First among the assets is its very composition, which ends the political crisis. Because the relief that the formation of a regular cabinet brings, surpasses the question of how much it is liked at the start.
The assets of the new government
In the formation of this government, the model of party commitment prevailed, rather than political neutrality and expert principles. In times of crisis, this is a greater request for a sustainable outcome than for postponement, because there is clear political responsibility. The very figure of Prime Minister Rosen Zhelyazkov, who combines political responsibility, experience, expertise and dialogicity, creates a sense of stability and seriousness, which somewhat compensates for the problematic composition of the government.
Regular government with clear political responsibility is a prerequisite for normalizing the institutional process of governance - from more effective propulsion of the state administration, which remained weightless during the long months of irresponsible and weak official power, to much more targeted and rhythmic legislative work in parliament. Last but not least, the new parliamentary majority can finally unblock the blockage of key state bodies with long-expired mandates in the judiciary and regulators.
The liabilities of the coalition government
The liabilities of this government, first and foremost, are the question of whether it is the result entirely of the autonomous will of the parties that make it up. The agreement for the new government dropped the measures requested in the negotiations with the DB to limit the influence of Delyan Peevski, and the ministerial staff reveals dependencies on the leader of the DPS-New Beginning. Not only is the coalition ideologically too diverse, but the too-quick agreement to form a coalition between the BSP and the ITN, oriented not to policies and principles, but to positions, betrays a dominant power and kleptocratic drive for power. In addition, many ministers seem out of place - the financial, domestic, social. Or it is not clear what competence ministers have when they are not prominent party figures - the economic, cultural, etc. The expected normalization of governance, as long as the cabinet is regular with a parliamentary majority behind it, may in fact quickly lead to the party parceling out of entire sectors of governance. The administration may be taken over by party clientelists. And the legislative process may often depend on floating majorities due to the ideological diversity of the coalition, which will lead to a number of decisions having to be supported by formations outside the coalition. Last but not least, the filling of the regulators and the judicial council may turn out to be a re-stylized edition of the old bodies with an expired mandate.
What will the stability of the cabinet depend on
However, the balance between the liabilities and assets of this government will not depend on the pursuit of a zero deficit of compensating for shortcomings with positives or on credits of trust secured by managerial successes. The serious guarantee is factors outside this government.
The only one is that in the first half of the year the EU Council will make the final decision on Bulgaria's accession to the eurozone from January 1, 2026. This will not be a merit of the current government, but it will be its bonus and will play a stabilizing role. The geopolitical change after Donald Trump's inauguration as president in the USA requires the country to flee from domestic political destabilization, which in itself will be a factor in maintaining the government, especially if it does not make sharp foreign policy moves. Last but not least, a domestic political alternative that would overthrow the cabinet in the short term cannot be expected, since the opposition is ideologically diverse, and GERB's former partners - PP-DB, need time to find their oppositional face and choose the perspective for their own coalition. And the possible threat from the president as a new political alternative, which could potentially seriously change the party-political map, seems irrelevant for now - Rumen Radev is emerging as a strategic partner of the coalition, at least at its launch.
The factors for destabilizing the government may be primarily intra-coalition, which can change the socio-political climate so that the government accepted with relief can very quickly become unbearable. Especially if the dependencies in this government prove to be so insurmountable that they shine compromisingly behind its every step or if Peevski himself decides that at some point it will be more profitable for him to dethrone him. But the deadly trigger for the end of power is in the hands of those in power themselves - or in the hands of the one who is peeking behind them. Therefore, it is most logical to expect Bulgaria's new government to seek a careful balance with behind-the-scenes interests and public legitimization through frieze-like institutional reforms - something like a moderate restructuring of the old system in an attempt to save it.
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This comment expresses the personal opinion of the author and may not coincide with the positions of the Bulgarian editorial office and the State Gazette as a whole.