Five months after the canopy at the Novi Sad station collapsed, the political crisis in Serbia continues. Who will win this game of nerves?
Almost half a year after the canopy at the Novi Sad station collapsed and killed 16 people, the protests in Serbia are entering a phase of strategic maneuvering between the government and the student movement.
Over 300,000 people took part in the demonstration in Belgrade on March 15, but demands for political and criminal responsibility for the incident have still not managed to prevail over political maneuvering. "We are in a phase where both sides are testing their patience and waiting for someone to step aside while they consider the decisions that need to be made," said Bojan Klačar of the Center for Free Elections and Democracy. Klačar believes that the government will end this phase by appointing a new cabinet to succeed the resigned Prime Minister Miloš Vučević.
Vučić is trying to divert attention with the idea of a new movement
Consultations on its formation have already begun, and Parliament Speaker Ana Brnabić announced that if an agreement is not reached by April 18, new elections will be called in early June. Meanwhile, President Aleksandar Vučić has once again spoken about forming a "Movement for the People and the State".
"It is time to channel the power of our people and unite all the wisdom and patriotism of our citizens so that we can shape the future we all want," Vučić wrote on social media after a meeting to establish the new movement. Officially, this will happen in Belgrade between April 11 and 13. Brnabić, who is the speaker of parliament and a former prime minister, says the event will resemble a festival - with food, drink and cultural events. Citizens will be able to join in, write letters to Vučić and even "share their criticism of officials at all levels of government".
And while offering optimism to their supporters, the authorities are baring their teeth in the face of protesters. After withholding the salaries of teachers who joined the strikes, university professors are now in the crosshairs.
Pressure, repression, physical attacks on protesters
Professor Vladimir Mihić of the University of Novi Sad told DV that he received only 23 dinars (which is about 20 cents) for the second half of February. "After March 15, the government started to lose control. After failing to provoke bloodshed, impose a state of emergency and, as the president put it, "end the protests," the next phase was open repression against anyone who opposed it," he said. In addition to salary cuts, the repression also includes arrests of students and activists, Mihić explained, as well as filing charges against university deans and even physical attacks.
The atmosphere in Serbia is tense. Last week, a group of students were attacked in Novi Sad. Two were slightly injured, while a third was hospitalized. Two days later, the dean of the philosophy faculty in Niš, Natalia Jovanović, was attacked with a knife. Videos on social media showed the attacker threatening Jovanović and saying that she "wanted to kill her" because she "ruined her granddaughter's life."
Jovanović was among the first deans to support the student protests and blockades. Since then, she has been the target of pro-government tabloids, calling her "the instigator of a gang of thugs and fascists" and accusing her of "inciting unrest."
Waiting for a political alternative
Despite the pressure and repression, the protesters are not giving up. Every public manifestation of the ruling party is met with demonstrations and even egg-throwing, as happened to representatives of the Serbian Progressive Party.
For the time being, the students are not openly calling for regime change, but after the grand demonstration on March 15, discussions about formulating specific political demands have become more frequent. Media reports indicate that some student organizations have already supported a proposal for an "expert government", although the plan will not be publicly presented until a consensus is reached among all protesters. A similar proposal has already been presented by opposition parties.
Klačar supports such a move, but he believes it is too late and has missed the peak of the protests. "I am not sure that the government would be willing to do anything more than what it has already done in terms of demands", says the director of the Center for Free Elections and Democracy. "It will probably make other indirect concessions to quell the protests - for example, changes in the composition of the government, changes in some policies and the appointment of figures with professional experience."
Are Vučić's days numbered?
Professor Mihić, however, believes that the days of the ruling class are numbered. "Autocratic regimes always become extremely repressive and aggressive at the end of their rule. Repressions should actually encourage us. They show that the regime is in agony. "I don't believe it will survive the next few months," he added to DW.
The students have also turned to Europe. Eight students got on their bikes on Thursday and set off for Strasbourg, where they plan to present their demands to the Council of Europe and highlight the failures of Serbian institutions. Their journey will be 1,300 kilometers long, expected to take 12 days and pass through Budapest, Vienna, Linz, Salzburg, Munich, Augsburg, Ulm and Stuttgart.
Klačar believes that the initiative could draw the attention of certain European circles to the political crisis in Serbia and undermine the international legitimacy of the government. "But whether this action will be a turning point for the protests or will change the EU's position on Serbia - I'm not sure," he said.
"The European Union is very clear and precise in its official reports on the situation in Serbia," he added. "But it is unrealistic to expect the EU to take radical positions against its partners. After all, Serbia is an EU partner - especially as long as there is no clear political alternative in the country." And the formation of such an alternative is not in sight in the near future, says Boyan Klacar.