The official representative of the Air Force of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Ilya Yevlash told AFP that the Russian Tu-22M3 strategic bomber that crashed today in the Stavropol Territory was hit the Dnieper and Kryvyi Rih.
The Ukrainian military said the plane was shot down by the Ukrainian Air Force, but the Russian Defense Ministry said it was an incident related to a technical malfunction and that it was returning to the airport "after completing a combat mission".
"This is the plane that bombed the Dnieper and Kryvyi Rih. We avenged our civilians," Evlash told AFP
According to the latest data, as a result of the attack in Dnipro on Friday, 7 people were killed, including two children. Three more people were injured in the attack in Kryvyi Rih.
Ukraine's Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) claims that the bomber was shot down "by the same means with which it was previously hit" the Russian A-50 long-range radar detection aircraft over the Krasnodar Territory. According to Ukrainian intelligence, the Tu-22M3 was shot down at a distance of about 300 kilometers from Ukraine (probably the front line was meant), managed to fly to the Stavropol region and crashed there.
A Russian Air Force Tu-22M3 bomber crashed in Stavropol Krai. Russian officials say the crew ejected. https://t.co/tgt9VtqQRPhttps://t .co/EgwVMZvII3https://t.co/6hNlgIQBjEhttps://t.co/lqJyJIZbu7 pic.twitter.com/m27h2vWnx1
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) April 19, 2024
Theoretically, this is possible. The armed forces of Ukraine have an air defense system technically capable of firing at a distance of up to 300 km - the Soviet development S-200D "Dubna".
The X-22 missiles that the Russian Tu-22M3s fired over Ukraine have a maximum range of 600 km and low accuracy, so it can be assumed that the bomber pilot tried to fly as close to the target as possible.
But this exhausts the arguments in favor of the Ukrainian version of GUR. There are more arguments against.
The time to deploy the S-200 system is 19 hours and it had to be done close to the front line. Whether it is possible to deploy such a valuable air defense system in an area of heavy fighting for almost a day without the enemy noticing it is a big question.
A-50, which the Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate is talking about, fell in the Krasnodar region, 230 km from the front line. In that case, we can still assume that it was shot down by a S-200 missile at maximum range (which in itself is very difficult and possible only under the most favorable attack conditions). But 400 km in the case of Tu-22M3 is too far.
The warhead of the S-200 missile is high-explosive and very powerful. If an aircraft is hit by multiple fragments from this missile, it usually leads to a complete failure of the control systems, after which it is almost impossible to return and fly another 100-200 km.
Videos from the scene show the Tu-22M3 falling in a field, its right engine on fire. An engine fire is a common occurrence due to a technical malfunction. It could also be caused by a missile from a man-portable anti-aircraft system or a bird strike, but this is unlikely as these aircraft fly at high altitudes.
In addition to these assumptions, there remains the version of "friendly fire", as well as the possibility of Ukraine using new air defense systems that were not presented earlier. It should be noted that on Friday, for the first time during the war, the Ukrainian armed forces reported two downed Kh-22 supersonic missiles fired by the Tu-22M3.