Noted military analyst Dara Massicot of the Carnegie Foundation; published on the social network X (formerly known as Twitter) an express analysis of the situation in the Kharkiv region, where the Russian military began an offensive.
She questions exactly what the Russian military's goals are: a limited incursion to create a "buffer zone" (the Ukrainian military, among other things, talked about this possibility) or an attempt to intimidate and distract the armed forces of Ukraine?
Massicot recalls that earlier the Russian Ministry of Defense announced the creation of a new operational group of troops "North" and appointed its commander General Alexander Lapin (in 2022 he commanded the "Center" group that launched the invasion of Ukraine).
According to the expert, in order to capture the entire Kharkiv region, the Russian army needs 75,000 to 100,000 soldiers and heavy equipment - and it currently does not have such capabilities. Similarly, the Russian army does not have the resources to occupy Kharkiv, notes Massicot.
However, in order to create a 30-kilometer sanitary zone near the border in the Kharkiv region, according to her estimates, 30-40 thousand military personnel with an appropriate resource of armored vehicles are needed.
As Massicot writes, the Russian military has yet to bring significant numbers of armored vehicles into battle, using aircraft and drones alongside infantry attacks. However, it is not yet clear whether this is due to a lack of technology or a desire to use it at a later stage of the operation.
In any case, according to the military expert, the offensive in the Kharkiv region is diverting Russian resources that could be used in the Donetsk region or on other sections of the front.
At the same time, the expert did not notice any signs of the transfer of troops from the occupied regions of Ukraine in the direction of Kharkiv. And this shows that the grouping in this area will be formed by inexperienced reserves or by formations that have been reformed.
She believes that a better understanding of the Russian military's goals can be gained by examining which Russian units and resources are concentrated on the border and what their numbers are.
At the same time, the attack in the Kharkiv direction inevitably increases the workload of the armed forces of Ukraine, which have to solve such problems in "the current difficult time", the expert concludes.