In the hands of Vladimir Putin! The gift that every Russian leader could only dream of

In a purely military sense, the war in Ukraine is not going so badly for Kiev, but the gift that every Russian leader could only dream of is in the hands of Putin - NATO without US military support, writes Sky News.

Since last November, Russian territorial gains on the front have slowed to a crawl, causing them to lose an average of about 1,500 people every day.

They have almost - but not quite - taken Toretsk. And after months on the brink of taking the other key strategic cities of Chasov Yar and Pokrovsk, Russian forces still remain outside them.

A massive Russian air campaign against Ukraine’s power grid, its critical infrastructure, and civilian targets has not brought Kiev to its knees, despite one of the harshest winters of the Russian air offensive against Ukraine.

And in the Black Sea, Ukraine has driven the Russian fleet from its western waters, thus keeping open its vital sea lanes from the ports of Odessa to the Mediterranean and the Danube basin. This is a strategic battle that Ukraine has undoubtedly won.

But with so much material aid from Iran, North Korea, and China, Russia is clearly prepared to continue the war, even though on current trends its own economy will be pretty shaky by the end of this year.

If Western powers, especially the United States, continue with their current levels of support, then Ukraine could also continue if it is willing to fight, even with its more limited human resources.

But the battlefield is no longer of much importance. The political terrain has changed dramatically under the influence of Kiev and its main supporters in Europe.

The United States seems to have suddenly reversed its position under President Trump and is pushing Ukraine towards a very rapid, so-called “peace agreement”. Serious negotiations have not yet begun, but top American leaders seem eager to give Moscow more than it ever dreamed of when its "special military operation" in Ukraine failed so spectacularly three years ago.

Moscow now believes it has a very good chance of keeping all its military gains, even getting parts of the Ukrainian regions it has not yet conquered, getting some relief from sanctions, American investment in its economy, and returning to the G-7, which will revert to its G-8 role.

It will also make demands on what Kiev will and will not be allowed to do, and what NATO must do to "pacify" Moscow that it will not have to invade anyone else in an act of self-defense.

Most of all, the United States is holding out to Russia the tempting prospect that NATO’s “transatlantic dimension” could be militarily completed under Trump. This means that if the Europeans find themselves in a position to fight Russia in the future, the United States will stand aside.

This prospect is the greatest free gift Washington could ever give Moscow.

Stalin, Khrushchev, Brezhnev, even Gorbachev and Yeltsin all wanted this, but never got close to it. Putin may feel that he is now within arm’s reach, whatever happens in Ukraine.