What does the suspension of US aid to Ukraine mean? And what should be done in the field of defense?
F. Sauer: Last year, there was already a phase in which, due to Trump's influence on the Republicans, Congress withheld aid to Ukraine for a while. This did not have an immediate effect on the fighting, but it was felt in the medium term, especially in the field of air defense, military expert Frank Sauer reminds ARD. As a result of the Russian shelling with drones and missiles, a larger number of civilians were killed or injured at that time, he points out and explains that the US has already paid for the supplies to Ukraine so far and they are simply sitting somewhere useless. This means that the American taxpayer does not benefit from this action.
“Only Putin benefits, who currently has no reason to make any efforts for peace. Trump is firmly on Russia's side against Ukraine. And we in Europe will be next in line if we do not make every effort to defend ourselves“, said Frank Sauer, head of the research department of the Institute for Strategies and Forecasts at the University of the Bundeswehr, in an interview with the German public-law media.
Air defense, artillery, intelligence will suffer
What capabilities will Ukraine have to lose if American aid is withdrawn?
F. Sauer: The impact will be mainly in four sectors. This is, first of all, air defense, especially the Patriot systems, which play a crucial role in protecting Ukrainian cities and critical infrastructure. Until now, such systems have only been produced in the United States, and their European equivalent is not yet ready. Second is artillery, along with ammunition. This includes both howitzers and rocket artillery, for example, the HIMARS systems. Artillery is already playing a more limited role on the front than at the beginning of the war, since drones, which Ukraine itself fortunately produces in large quantities, have become much more important over the past year and a half. However, the shortage of artillery and ammunition will be a problem and will have to be compensated for.
The third area covers training and consulting, including in the field of assistance provided through software and information. The fourth sector covers everything related to communication, as well as reconnaissance, tracking and hitting targets.
"Information about the enemy is crucial"
Which of these capabilities are particularly important for Ukraine?
F. Sauer: Air defense is important - especially for protecting the population and critical infrastructure. It is precisely the last two things that are most critical. One could say that tanks, artillery and missiles are crucial, but this war has been predominantly infantry on both sides for months now - there are almost no large mechanized attacks.
It is in this infantry war that drones are the most important weapons, which in the meantime also lead to the greatest losses. Therefore, reliable information about the enemy, about the operational situation and for determining targets is crucial for Ukraine. Simply put: without the US, Ukraine will no longer be able to "see" what is happening far from enemy lines and in Russia itself. US support in the field of intelligence is particularly valuable for Ukraine. A possible shutdown of the "Starlink" satellite network could have a catastrophic impact on communications.
"The deficit in critical areas will not be able to be compensated for at first"
What part of the lost aid can the Europeans replace with their current capabilities - if, of course, there is political will?
F. Sauer: In some of the listed sectors, Europe could intervene with its capabilities and at least partially compensate for what Ukraine will lack after the termination of American aid. To achieve this, we need to secure money and military materials in the short term, and in the medium term, we need to significantly expand European production capacities. This should have happened a long time ago, but we need to start now.
However, in the most critical areas, the shortages will not be able to be replaced - for example, in the provision and processing of information, in communication, intelligence, surveillance and target designation - in this respect Europe itself depends on the United States.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen presented a “Plan for arming Europe“. In which areas can Europeans quickly improve or increase their capacities?
F. Sauer: Through investments in the defense industry, the capacity for ammunition production can be expanded. Ukraine's air defense can also be strengthened by the supply of additional systems in this area. Above all, however, we can finally seize the 200 billion euros of frozen Russian capital in Europe and thus secure the funds to purchase weapons with which to continue supporting Ukraine. The changed situation after the scandal in the White House requires a rethinking of this previously controversial issue.
"Europe's dependence on the US is great"
In what ways could Europe suffer from a lack of support from the US?
F. Sauer: The list is long, Europe's dependence is great. If we consider, for example, the already mentioned “Patriot“ systems - they are used not only in Ukraine, but also in Germany and several other European countries. Europe has other very effective air defense systems, but none of them could be relied on to hit targets previously covered by the American “Patriot”. There would be nothing to replace the modern F-35 fighter jet, which many European countries already use or have ordered. In addition, Europe relies on the United States for the ability to deliver precision strikes with a long range. Here too, a European equivalent is being developed, but the development is at its very beginning.
However, it should also be noted that there are areas such as cyber defense or the exchange of information between secret services, in which Europe has benefited greatly from the United States. But, of course, information also flows in the opposite direction, and now we must ask ourselves whether it does not reach the Kremlin. Since President Trump has de facto changed fronts and the US is no longer against Russia, but on its side.
We must abandon the concept of "peacekeeping forces"
If a ceasefire is reached, how many soldiers could Europe send as peacekeepers?
F. Sauer: First of all, we must abandon the concept of "peacekeeping forces" - this will not be a UN peacekeeping mission, but to a much greater extent it will be about the presence of European troops with a corresponding mandate in Ukraine, who will provide logistical, material and other support to Ukraine, and in the worst case, will guarantee its security.
Russia must be intimidated, and for this purpose the will of the European side is needed. Let's be clear: such a military presence only has a deterrent effect if Russia knows that Europe will not budge if it attacks Ukraine again. That would mean Russia seeking war with us too - and then we would have to fight and win it.
And that is something that no one in Europe wants. Despite everything, I do not think that peace will come to Ukraine in the near future. Russia is showing no signs of interest in a settlement. I think it is much more likely that Putin will expand the war and try to test us militarily or cause political division elsewhere than to agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine.
Christoph Schwanitz ARD | Eckart Aretz ARD