The administration of US President Donald Trump has stopped sharing intelligence with Ukraine. This was one of many demands that the Kremlin has made to the US and other supporters of Ukraine. The details vary from report to report, with some suggesting that the entire intelligence exchange is affected.
This is according to the latest analysis on Ukraine by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Western media reported that the Trump administration has specifically stopped sharing intelligence that Ukraine uses for early warning systems to protect against Russian strikes with long-range missiles and drones, for targeting targets for strikes with HIMARS (GMLRS) guided multiple launch rocket systems, and for targeting targets for long-range strikes.
The British edition of the Daily Mail reported that the United States has also banned the United Kingdom from sharing American intelligence with Ukraine.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov explicitly stated on March 4 that the United States provides Ukraine with intelligence such as satellite reconnaissance data.
This suspension will harm Ukraine's ability to defend itself against ongoing Russian attacks on military and civilian targets. Ukrainian forces have used their ability to strike into Russia and destroy significant amounts of materiel to increase pressure on Russia. Ukrainian forces struck a Russian missile and ammunition depot near Toropets, Tver Oblast on the night of September 17-18, 2024, destroying two to three months of Russia's ammunition supplies.
Ukraine's inability to conduct ATACMS and HIMARS strikes against Russian air defense systems in Russia and occupied Ukraine will likely affect how close to the front lines Russian pilots are willing to operate and will expand Russia's ability to effectively use guided bombs against both frontline areas and near Ukrainian cities in the rear.
Closing all U.S. intelligence sharing with Ukraine would also allow Russian forces to step up drone and missile strikes against Ukrainian rear areas, affecting millions of Ukrainian civilians and expanding Ukraine's defense industrial base. U.S. intelligence contributed to Ukraine's early warning system for Russian strikes on Ukrainian cities, allowing Ukrainian authorities and civilians to prepare after Russian forces launched missiles and drones.
The suspension of U.S. intelligence on Russian strikes against Ukrainian targets, combined with the U.S. halting the delivery of Patriot air defense missiles that Ukraine relies on to defend against Russian ballistic missiles, would have a serious impact on the security of Ukraine's rear areas.
Russian drone and missile strikes have heavily targeted Ukraine's energy infrastructure.
The Trump administration is exerting significant pressure on Ukraine, whose leaders continue to offer concessions and publicly declare their interest in achieving a lasting end to the war.
These Trump administration policies undermine the leverage the United States needs to pressure Russian President Vladimir Putin to accept any peace agreement that is in the United States' interest. states, Ukraine, and Europe.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on March 4 that "Ukraine is ready to sit at the negotiating table as soon as possible to bring lasting peace".
Zelensky also proposed an exchange of Ukrainian and Russian prisoners of war, a ban on long-range missile and drone strikes on energy and civilian infrastructure, and an immediate ceasefire in the Black Sea.
Zelensky has indicated several times—including in his February 28 Fox News interview—that he is willing to make concessions on territory, Ukraine's NATO membership, and his own term in office to secure a just and sustainable peace.
In contrast, Russian President Vladimir Putin and numerous Kremlin officials have offered no meaningful concessions. They have repeatedly repeated demands that lead to the complete surrender of Ukraine, as well as the withdrawal of NATO from Eastern Europe.
Russia's military efforts in Ukraine have created a series of material, manpower, and economic challenges for Moscow that will worsen in the coming months if Ukraine manages to maintain its defensive military operations.
The United States should use these Russian challenges to secure the concessions needed to achieve a just and lasting peace. U.S. policies of withholding military aid and intelligence sharing for Ukraine reduce Trump’s need for leverage to achieve his stated policy goal of ending the war in Ukraine on acceptable terms, a task that requires increasing pressure on Russia, not Ukraine.
Kremlin officials have announced their intention to exploit the withholding of U.S. military aid and intelligence sharing to achieve additional gains on the battlefield. Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, said on March 5 that U.S. arms supplies to Ukraine “will most likely be resumed,” but that Russia’s “main task” remains “to inflict maximum damage.” of Ukraine "on the ground".
Medvedev's statement is consistent with ISW's assessment that Russian forces are likely to try to take advantage of the pause in US aid to make further gains in eastern and southern Ukraine to justify Russia's territorial claims to the Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions.
Medvedev also indicated that Russia is aware that it may have a limited time frame in which to use the suspension of US aid to "inflict maximum damage" to Ukrainian forces. Russian forces took advantage of the previous suspension of U.S. military aid in early 2024, including by attempting to capture the city of Kharkiv in May 2024 before U.S. military aid resumed flowing to Ukrainian forces on the front lines.
Russian officials continue to inaccurately blame Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, rather than Russian President Vladimir Putin, for the lack of meaningful peace talks. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov responded to a question about Zelensky's willingness to negotiate by claiming that Lavrov could not "get inside (Zelensky's) head" and that Zelensky was "not human".
Peskov and Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova continued to argue that Zelensky's 2022 ban for talks with Russia is a prominent obstacle to progress in the negotiations - the latest in the Kremlin's efforts to portray Zelensky - not Putin - as unwilling to negotiate.
Both Zelensky and the Ukrainian parliament (the Verkhovna Rada) have explicitly and publicly declared Ukraine's willingness to engage in good faith negotiations and have presented substantial proposals for a ceasefire - in sharp contrast to the Kremlin.
Kremlin officials continue to use incentives for business to make additional demands on the United States and to insist that the United States de facto recognize Russia's annexation of Ukrainian territory. Peskov said on March 4 that Russia is open to working with American companies, including in areas of occupied Ukraine.
Peskov's rhetoric reflects the Kremlin's strategy of using international organizations such as the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to legitimize Russian control over Ukrainian territories.
The Kremlin has used discussions with IAEA representatives about the nuclear power plant to claim that the facility is located on Russian territory.