The Kremlin continues to spread the false narrative that European Union (EU) member states and Ukraine are seeking to prolong and escalate the war in Ukraine to divert attention from Russia’s long-term preparations for war with the West, according to the latest report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
On March 7, Russian Foreign Ministry (MFA) spokeswoman Maria Zakharova reacted to the March 6 EU summit by describing EU initiatives to increase military spending and financial assistance to Ukraine as “deliberate feeding” of the escalation between the West and Russia and described the EU as a “militarized alliance“ that is “obsessed“ with inflicting a strategic defeat on Russia. Zakharova said the EU is playing “dangerous geopolitical games“ and “postponing“ the possibility of negotiations to end the war. Zakharova's comments ignore the Kremlin's ongoing efforts to rally domestic support for the war in Ukraine and justify Russia's long-term efforts to militarize Russian society, arguing that Russia is waging a proxy war with the West in Ukraine and must prepare for a future war with the West.
Russia's efforts to strengthen its power grouping in Belarus, expand its military capabilities, and militarize its society in the long term reflect Russia's preparations for a potential future war with NATO. Russia deployed several S-300 air defense systems to Belarus in late August 2021. and forces of the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) in Belarus in September 2021 and has continued to build up its force presence in Belarus over the past three years. Russia and Belarus have consistently used the Union State Treaty to deepen their bilateral military agreements. In November 2024, Russia updated its nuclear doctrine to expand its nuclear umbrella to include Belarus and explicitly stated that Russia could use tactical nuclear weapons stationed in Belarus in the event of aggression against Belarus. Russia is engaged in significant efforts to restructure its forces, military industry, and hybrid warfare that underscore its efforts to prepare for and potentially initiate future conflict with the West. Former Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced in March 2023 that Russia would create 14 new military divisions, demonstrating Russia’s clear intention to expand its military in the coming years.
Russia is attempting to build its long-term warfighting capabilities by expanding and nationalizing its defense-industrial base.
Various European law enforcement agencies and authorities have documented Russia’s ongoing efforts to wage hybrid warfare in Europe for the better part of a decade, including reports that Russia forced several commercial airliners to turn back after targeting the planes with GPS jamming devices in April 2024.
The Kremlin is likely developing this narrative as part of its efforts to escalate tensions between the United States and Europe and undermine the broader Western alliance supporting Ukraine.
The United States has rejected a Canadian proposal to create of a working group to study the so-called "shadow fleet" of Russian oil tankers, as the administration of US President Donald Trump overestimates its position in multilateral organizations, Bloomberg writes, citing its sources.
Canada, which holds the G-7 presidency this year, will host a summit of foreign ministers next week in Charlevoix, Quebec.
According to Bloomberg sources, in talks to draft a joint statement on maritime issues, the US is pushing for stronger language on China while softening language on Russia.
The term "shadow fleet" is used to refer to old oil tankers hidden by Western sanctions imposed on Moscow after it launched a war in Ukraine in 2022.
In addition to vetoing Canada's proposal to create a working group to monitor sanctions violations, a draft of the G7 statement seen by Bloomberg shows the US pushing to remove the word “sanctions“ in reference to “Russia's ability to sustain the war“ in Ukraine, replacing it with “revenue generation“.