DW: The agreement on joint mining in Ukraine was not signed, and the United States stopped military aid to Ukraine. Did the United States betray Ukraine?
Michael Sulman: At this stage, yes, of course. This is quite clear. Not only that, but Washington's entire narrative coincides with the Kremlin's narrative. This is a change in the world that will be a very important turning point in history.
DW: Does this mean that Donald Trump is ready to fully fulfill Moscow's wishes?
Sulman: I don't know, but everything points that way. The Kremlin will not give him everything that Trump needs - i.e. ceasefire. This is against Moscow's interests. Trump will not get that quick diplomatic victory that he promised. It is hard to imagine that Putin will give up his position now that he sees how things are developing. After all, he has been on the offensive in Ukraine before. Even if the arms supply is restored, the situation in Ukraine is very difficult. However, there is one positive effect. Trump's behavior is so absurd, so surreal that it has even made Europeans start thinking and acting.
In the EU, the process of supporting Ukraine has always been slow, in particular because of Hungary's actions, sanctions were introduced slowly. But now those who want to help Ukraine are united in an informal group of countries in which Hungary does not have the slightest influence. And this is certainly positive. To what extent this can fill the gap that will appear in Ukraine due to Trump's policy is unknown. The gaps will be in intelligence, although there are hints of possibilities from the British and other Europeans.
DW: What do you think are the chances of ending the war this year?
Sulman: Right now, barring some unforeseen developments in the Kremlin, I don't see how this war could end this year. Putin will continue the military campaign, and the question is how long Ukraine can hold out.
But the question arises whether the US will continue to sell weapons to the Europeans if they want to arm or assist Ukraine with them? Europe does not have enough of its own production capacity. It is unclear whether Trump will prohibit such a deal, which benefits the American military-industrial complex - most likely not. If it becomes known that Trump has banned a deal that would be beneficial for a local plant, this could affect his image and support.
DW: How likely is it that Europe will send its troops to Ukraine?
Sulman: I can't say what will happen, but basically this whole discussion is based on the hypothesis that there will be a ceasefire. And, secondly, that Putin and Lavrov will agree to accept some NATO troops along the demarcation line - which they have already opposed. So, in this case, we are dealing with a lot of hypotheses.
DW: Experts say that Ukraine's defeat in this war will also be a defeat for the West. Do you agree? What would that mean for Europe?
Sulman: Yes, I agree. That would mean that Chamberlain has defeated Churchill. And it will mean that the process that is now somehow starting (the rearmament of Europe) will continue, will intensify and will cost huge amounts of money. Among other things, this also means strengthening the eastern flank. Then it will no longer be enough to have six hundred Swedish soldiers in Latvia or a German brigade in Lithuania.
DW: Has the risk of war between Russia and NATO increased in recent weeks and days?
Sulman: I don't know to what extent Putin is ready for more crazy adventures. But if you look closely - Article 5 of NATO is in question. Even earlier, there were statements by Trump during the election campaign that we will not protect those who do not fulfill their obligations to NATO, and the Russians will be able to do whatever they want.
DW: Sweden recently became a member of NATO. Ukraine also wants to, but Trump made it clear that for now this can be forgotten. Is a new alliance possible alongside NATO and the EU that would include Ukraine?
Sulman: I can't say for sure, but on the one hand, yes, the Nordic group is 100 percent on Ukraine's side and is agitating for further support. But I find it hard to imagine how these countries plus Poland would create some kind of alternative operational military force. On the other hand, there are many different options. In Sweden, a few years before we joined NATO, we signed an agreement with Great Britain that included the Scandinavian countries plus the Netherlands. At that time, this was an alternative to joining NATO.
DW: You know Russia well, you lived there. At the beginning of the massive Russian invasion of Ukraine, many people in Europe were wondering what Putin wanted? How would you answer that question now?
Sulman: I think he laid it out pretty clearly in that infamous essay in the summer of 2021, in which he claimed that Ukraine does not exist as a state or nation. There are no Ukrainians in his plans, everything is Russian. He clearly states his goals to restore, to reassemble the former Russian lands.
DW: In an interview with Deutsche Welle, you claimed that this is Putin's war, not the Russian people's. Would you say the same now?
Sulman: I would say it's exactly like it was in World War II - Germany's war was largely Hitler's war. Let us recall that meeting of the Russian Security Council, when Putin conducted a kind of exam, questioning all his subordinates - it was clear that they were surprised, and that this was his plan. It is true that now a relative majority of people support him. But this is always the case. In France, the majority of the people were in favor of continuing the war in Algeria, even when the wiser de Gaulle concluded a peace treaty with Algeria. Also in the USA, contrary to all protests, the majority was in favor of continuing the war in Vietnam. But this is simply psychosociology - people are not sufficiently informed.
DW: Can anything stop Putin now?
Sulman: It is possible that Trump will run into a "wall" due to Russia's unwillingness to make concessions. He himself said that then he would play different music. But on the other hand, Trump has already gone so far in his desire to go along with the Kremlin. I can't judge - we see him constantly changing his positions. I'm not the first to say that this is a case for psychiatry.
DW: President Trump says or hints that he would like to win the Nobel Peace Prize. You were the director of the “Nobel“ foundation. Does he have any chance, even theoretically, if the war ends?
Sulman: First of all, I have never participated in the Nobel Peace Committee, which is based in Oslo. They work completely independently of the foundation that I headed. But that seems unlikely to me. People can nominate Trump, it's a secret process, but I think he has a small chance of receiving the Nobel Peace Prize.
DW: Why is that? What exactly would prevent it? Let's imagine that the war does end after a while.
Sulman: Let's see how it ends. If it is on Moscow's terms, which now seems quite likely, it means that Trump is simply hastening Ukraine's surrender. That is not the same as making peace.
Author: Roman Goncharenko