Russia has no intention of attacking Warsaw or Berlin, says military historian Sönke Nitzel, quoted by ARD. However, the professor at the University of Potsdam believes it is possible that Moscow could try to carry out a "limited" provocation against NATO.
It is not ruled out that Russia and Belarus could try to invade Lithuania across the country's border with Belarus, the historian explains. Moscow and Minsk will hold military exercises in September, where "100,000 soldiers could cross the border and reach Vilnius, which is 30 kilometers away", Nitzel said, expressing hope that Europe is prepared for such scenarios. At the same time, Moscow announced earlier today that Putin and Lukashenko will hold a meeting on March 13 to discuss "prospects for interaction".
"Provocation" against NATO?
Fear of such actions was also expressed by the director of the German intelligence service BND, Bruno Kahl. He told DW that the way Trump is trying to end the war in Ukraine will "allow the Russians to focus their energy against Europe".
"We are observing hybrid influence operations, including during elections in Europe, we are also observing acts of sabotage - all in a way that has no precedent in the recent past," Kahl said. In November 2024 The head of German intelligence has warned that Moscow could try to invade a NATO country under the familiar pretext of "protecting the Russian minority". The idea would be to test the Alliance's readiness to fulfill its Article 5 obligation to defend the country in question. "We very much hope that we will not have to face this dilemma. But we must assume that Russia wants to put the unity of the West to the test," Kahl told DW this week.
Lithuania takes steps for additional protection
Regarding US attempts to end the war in Ukraine through diplomatic channels, the chairman of Lithuania's National Security Council, Darius Jauniškis, said that "Russia can only be defeated by military means". According to him, a peaceful end to the war against Ukraine cannot be expected in the near future.
Jauniškis presented a report on the level of danger in the country. According to intelligence information from Vilnius, international pressure has not changed Russia's position, and Moscow's increased cooperation with Iran and North Korea only demonstrates Moscow's desire to oppose the West.
A few days ago, Lithuania also officially withdrew from the international convention banning the use of cluster munitions. The decision was made by the local parliament several months ago. Lithuanian Defense Minister Dovile Sakaliene said that the decision was a "strategic message that we are ready to use absolutely everything" to defend our country.