The Times: Black Sea deal is a victory for Vladimir Putin

The first deal towards a ceasefire, brokered by the United States, was agreed in Saudi Arabia a day ago. It benefits Moscow much more because it does not require major concessions from Kiev, The Times reports.

No concessions from Russia

It is clear that Russia has gained more than Ukraine from the agreement to end hostilities in the Black Sea and possibly ban attacks on energy facilities.

The White House said the agreement would "eliminate the use of force" in the Black Sea and ensure safe shipping. In reality, however, active hostilities in this region ceased as early as 2023, when the Russian fleet suffered significant losses and was forced to withdraw from Crimea after a series of successful Ukrainian attacks, including the sinking of the flagship “Moskva“.

After the withdrawal of the Russians from the Black Sea Fleet, Ukraine was able to establish grain exports, so the announced ceasefire will likely be more profitable for Russian ships.

"Ukraine is quite successful in ensuring the security of its grain corridor. At the same time, Russia is constantly attacking the ports of Odessa and Nikolaev, and there is nothing about this in the agreement. No restrictions have been imposed on Russia, wrote an adviser to the President of Ukraine, Serhiy Leshchenko, on Telegram.

He also accused the White House of failing to extract “any concessions“ from Russia in exchange for its ability to resume exports of agricultural products and fertilizers.

As for the potential ban on attacks on energy infrastructure, this could help Ukrainians avoid the disruptions that Russia tried to cause during the war. At the same time, Ukraine has also managed to launch numerous strikes on Russian oil facilities, which has damaged the Kremlin's economic ability to wage war. If such attacks stop, it will be an advantage for Moscow.

A victory for Putin

Russia has raised a demand for easing sanctions on "Rosselkhozbank" and other financial institutions involved in agricultural trade, in particular their return to the global payment system Swift.

The Russian agricultural bank "Rosselkhozbank" was excluded from Swift in 2022 by an EU decision. The European Union subsequently offered a compromise, allowing the bank to set up a subsidiary to process payments related to grain exports. Although this proposal was presented to Russia as early as 2023 under the auspices of the United Nations, the Kremlin was skeptical of it at the time and did not implement it.

If Moscow were to obtain such concessions now, it would be interpreted as a major victory for Putin and would set a precedent for further sanctions relief. The White House said the agreement would "expand" Russia's access to international financial systems, but did not specify whether this applies specifically to Swift .

Ukraine, on the other hand, fears that the West may weaken its position towards Russia.

"Even today, on the very day of the negotiations, we see how the Russians have already started to manipulate," President Zelensky said earlier.

"They are already trying to distort the agreements and essentially deceive both our mediators and the whole world.''

Does Putin want peace?

There are no signs that the Kremlin is really preparing for peace. The Russian Foreign Ministry said that a "breakthrough" in the talks cannot be expected, and Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called the idea that the fighting in Ukraine will end soon a "delusion". A date for a new round of U.S.-Russia talks has also not yet been set.

As Russian forces continue their slow advance into eastern Ukraine and the Trump administration increasingly repeats the Kremlin's "apologies" for the war, Putin has little incentive to end the invasion, The Times reported.

Despite significant losses among Russian troops, the Kremlin's rhetoric has changed little since the start of the full-scale war in 2022. This week, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reiterated that Moscow is seeking to "denazify" Ukraine, citing Putin's propaganda claims about the "neo-Nazi" nature of the Ukrainian state. He also accused the West of trying to "contain" Russia, comparing the situation to the actions of "Napoleon and Hitler".

On the day the talks began in Saudi Arabia, a Russian missile strike on Sumy wounded 88 people, including 17 children.

On the issue of the abducted Ukrainian children and prisoners, the White House said only that it would remain "committed" to efforts to return them.

"Desire is not enough for a prisoner exchange and the return of children," Leshchenko noted.

"It is not clear how the United States will provide this assistance."