Vasil Tonchev to FACTI: I expect us to have a cabinet, but with a shorter work horizon

What are the options for a government and will we have an agreement… Do we depend on the behavior of Trump, who will take office in January… Sociologist Vasil Tonchev speaks to FACTI.

- Mr. Tonchev, will the new year bring us elections or a cabinet?
- I hope for a cabinet. In any case, it would be better for the country and I expect it to happen. I think there are real chances for this to happen after the compromise that GERB made when electing Natalia Kiselova as Speaker of Parliament. I hope that things will go in this direction.

- But we see something interesting. GERB sits at the negotiating table only with “Democratic Bulgaria“, and “Continuing the Change“ looks on from the sidelines. At the same time, we hear from both political formations that there is no tension between them. Is that so?
- We can define this situation as a more rational approach from a political point of view for the development of these formations, imposing such behavior. In this situation “Continuing the Change“ they feel that they have prospects ahead of them and will position themselves as opposition.

- But can only half of the coalition participate in the government…
- It can, but that means that there must be a fourth member in the cabinet.

- Is the BSP or ITN fighting for this place…
- I don't think they are fighting, but rather the BSP and ITN are bargaining for their place in the coalition. But they are the possible partners so that a majority can be formed in parliament. Look, the whole world is waiting to see how things will develop in the US, what will happen when Trump comes. We see how France and Germany waited and immediately held elections. So it was normal for us to enter this spiral. The fact that we got ahead of the American elections several times was just a mistake, but we still couldn't figure things out. We cannot fail to take into account the major democracies, we are a function of the international situation. And here things should start to sort themselves out, once they sort themselves out in the major democracies.

- How much are things getting sorted out in the MRF? Delyan Peevski expelled Ahmed Dogan from the party. Of course, we are speaking conditionally, if everything is recognized by the court. And have you ever thought at all that there could be a MRF without Ahmed Dogan?
- We need to clarify something here. Right now we are already talking about two different parties. The fight between them is about formal conditions - who will take the MRF brand. In the MRF, the rift is insurmountable. These are already two different organizations that will follow their own political paths.

- Have you ever imagined that there could be a MRF without Dogan?
- I have not imagined such a thing, but as we see, mistakes are paid for. From Ahmed Dogan's point of view, I mean. He put Delyan Peevski in this position. And today it has already happened that Peevski will win the brand.

- Ahmed Dogan raised a “strong child“, so to speak…
- Yes, you can say that.

- What behavior do you expect from the MRF in parliament and in political life?
- I expect the MRF with Peevski to have problems regarding their legitimacy. It is natural that they will be weaker divided.

- What will the participation of the ITN in a future cabinet amount to - pure support or the promotion of policies…
- In any case, the small parties in this coalition will have influence, because the majority depends on them. Without them, a cabinet cannot be formed. In such a situation, small parties acquire great importance. This applies to both the BSP and the ITN.

- And should we expect the INT to go against the coalition again at some point? They already did it once…
- In general, the behavior of the parties in the coalition will determine the lifespan of this majority. This cabinet, if formed, I expect it to have a shorter horizon, since contradictions will inevitably arise between the four subjects in government. So this is entirely possible to happen after some period of time. The idea of such a cabinet is for the state to take a somewhat channeled path.

- So you expect a cabinet with a clear, but shorter horizon.
- Yes, let's have a cabinet with some definite, but shorter horizon of work.