No one can predict the coalition's governance horizon. The coalition seems fragile, with a complex structure, but nevertheless stable, thanks to the fact that none of the parties is currently interested in early elections, commented Dimitar Ganev from the sociological agency "Trend" in an interview with the Bulgarian National Radio.
"The parties now feel comfortable in power because the government has an initial credit of trust. This credit comes not from overenthusiasm, but simply because it has a cabinet. This legitimacy will not last long, in months the situation will stabilize and the government must prove itself with governance actions," he pointed out.
The sociologist from "Trend" shared that he was not surprised by people's opinions – – "Bulgaria should not send a military contingent to Ukraine" and "Bulgaria should not interfere in the relations between Russia and Ukraine". And he added that surveys by sociological agencies show that over 70% of Bulgarians categorically stated that military aid and a military contingent should not be sent.
"Furthermore, the situation looks different in view of the recent talks between the American and Russian sides and this also weighs in the direction of not sending military contingents", he commented.
Ganev believes that the stability of the ruling coalition does not depend on the sale, which has not yet been reached, of nuclear reactors from Belene to Ukraine.
"This will not bring down the cabinet, one of the two sides will make a compromise. What awaits us with the budget is a much more serious test," he believes.
According to him, the budget will be the biggest challenge facing the coalition government because:
"The budget is a kind of vote of confidence and, accordingly, of no confidence. It is exaggerated to say that the cabinet will fall apart because of the budget. We need a balance in the budget, and the biggest problem for Bulgarians and the cabinet is the rise in prices and their control. The control, according to the signals that are being given, will not lead to a price ceiling, but in order to reduce social tension, the budget cannot afford to cut social spending."
Ganev warned that social tension is at high levels and in order not to ignite a major protest, it must calm down.
And at the same time, he explained that the balance is mandatory because in recent years social spending has been inflated, "thanks to the political crisis, each party showed how generous it was, because they were waiting for elections and it led to a spiral of social spending".
And these social spending now do not allow them to fit into the budget we need for the eurozone - a 3% deficit.
"That is why this balance will be difficult. I believe that a solution will be reached and it will not lead to the collapse of the cabinet, but there will be damage. At the moment, none of the parties will take any drastic action, because none of these 4 parties feel like going to new elections. Because they will not win more, nor will they have a better starting position for forming a cabinet," predicts Dimitar Ganev.
He also commented on the election of the new chairman of the BSP - Atanas Zafirov and pointed out that his main task is to balance between the factions in the Centennial.