The chance of the third term succeeding is close to zero. What can it be used for, which party will it be handed over to, and what are the accounts of President Rumen Radev? Comment from Veselin Stoynev:
A third term has next to zero chance of succeeding. Not only because this is exactly what all parliamentary parties in Bulgaria expect. And because a government with a third mandate would not contribute to a way out of the political crisis, even with a temporary postponement of early elections. This would only mask the causes of the crisis instead of leading to its resolution. Because the political compromise between those who showed that with the first two mandates they cannot govern together, should (if possible at all) be achieved first with their voters, and not be disguised and postponed in a crisis third mandate. Achieving agreement in the third term is possible on another extraordinary basis, such as is not now visible, and attempts to achieve it would only prolong the agony.
A little self-promotion and blanket talk
However, the third mandate, like the second, can serve as a platform for convergence of positions. Of course, as with the second, this will be more of a blanket and pro forma effort, as all parliamentary parties know they have a duty to form a government, but all prove incapable of doing so. Real negotiations for a compromise and a search for a governing formula would have happened already in the first two terms, if that was possible.
Therefore, the third mandate would have tertiary functions. The first is that whoever holds the mandate, together with President Rumen Radev, who himself will decide when to hand it over, will adjust the schedule for the elections so that they are not too early and an election campaign will be conducted while the holiday season lasts , nor to be too late and prolong the agony of the crisis. That is, to be able to take place around the middle or the second half of October.
Another modest function is the following opportunity: for the party that gets the mandate to use it briefly for its advertising, standing in the center of the spotlight and hosting low-key courtesy talks with other parliamentary parties. Despite the predetermined hypocrisy of these talks, they would help the mandate holder look a little more acceptable to the public as a possible partner of those who in the next parliament will have a more decisive role in power.
Chances of Positioning the President
The president, who chooses at his own discretion who to give it to, has slightly more serious chances of positioning himself through the third term. Unlike the first two terms, in the third he is charged by the constitution with the responsibility to commit to the effort to form a government and cannot afford (at least apparently) to sabotage this duty himself, like the parliamentary parties in the 50th National meeting.
In this sense, of the four theoretically possible formations (GERB and PP-DB have already wasted the first two, and "Velichie" has disintegrated and there is no parliamentary group), "Revival" and DPS (Peevski's, Dogan's people excluded from the group) are impossible and would be suicidal options for the president. "Revival" set conditions that almost all parliamentary formations cannot accept (referendums for complete separation from NATO, from the euro, from the USA, etc.), and DPS (especially of Delyan Peevski) is a complete antithesis for PP-DB and for " ;Revival', as well as the most undesirable as a sole partner for GERB even as a supporting force, let alone as a mandate holder. BSP and ITN remain, especially since they are the only ones who raised their hand to say they want the third mandate.
Rumen Radev will choose between BSP and ITN
The president could continue his straightforwardness and once again hand the third mandate to the BSP. But this time the choice would only be seemingly straightforward, because the BSP is no longer in the hands of Cornelia Ninova and Rumen Radev could prove that he remains loyal to the co-selector, and not to the leader, who was already in open conflict with him.
ITN also has a similar small electorate, and this is the party that shows the greatest sympathy for Radev. So he could give the mandate to her as well, all the more so as it can help her win back more voters after the formation's success in the last election (ITN and DPS alone won more votes than the 49th parliament).
The president's choice between BSP and ITN will most likely be dictated by the possibility that he himself has a small ally or a crutch among the parliamentary parties (he could negotiate directly with the larger ones). The BSP strategically provides greater, but also more unclear opportunities, insofar as there is a struggle for leadership, but also successive attempts to consolidate a wider range of leftist forces. In this environment, Radev may have wider opportunities for influence, but also more dangers of getting entangled in multi-directional partisan fights and intrigues.
In relation to the consolidated ITN, things seem much clearer - it could be his parliamentary bridgehead, as well as a polemical shield against attacks, for example by Peevski, which periodically flare up and subside. In addition, the ITN is flexible and geopolitical enough to be both pro-NATO and pro-European, and not completely to be a bridge to the president in a possible new majority that may not be so pro-Western and anti-Russian enthusiastically, especially if in November Trump won the US election.
So the modest role of the third term is to be a time key to determine the exact date for the election. It will also serve another purpose: to draw paths for the positioning of the president and two small parties for playing cards in the next parliament.
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This comment expresses the personal opinion of the author and may not coincide with the positions of the Bulgarian editorial office and of DV as a whole.