It is not excluded that GERB will also win new elections expected in October. But one more Pyrrhic victory of theirs and an eighth failure with the mandate for the cabinet sooner or later will raise the question of Borisov's resignation at the very least.
ITN's negotiations with the parliamentary parties to form a government are not just doomed to fail. They point out that the political crisis will most likely continue in the 51st National Assembly. Because despite the courtesy to still talk to the mandate holder, the political divisions have deepened even more. The split in the DPS and the judicial reform canceled by the Constitutional Court (SC) narrowed to a minimum the possibilities for forming a parliamentary majority not only in this but also in the next parliament.
Peevski put GERD in complete isolation
The brutal attempt to control the DPS by Delyan Peevski and the subsequent split in the party led to the humiliating failure of GERB's first mandate. The Cabinet “Rosen Zhelyazkov“ received 15 MPs less support than the "Nikolay Gabrovski" cabinet. – the first time a GERB government was rejected. For the last 3 years, however, GERB has also had 5 unfulfilled mandates as the first or second political power – twice nominated for prime minister was Daniel Mitov, twice – Maria Gabriel, and once Desislava Atanasova returned the folder to the president without even reaching a prime ministerial nomination.
It is very likely that after the elections expected in October, GERB will again win the first place and for the eighth time will not be able to form a government. Because Boyko Borisov cannot “untie“ from Peevski and to find any coalition partner, he cannot even approach back to his yesterday's partner PP-DB.
CS condemns PP-DB to impossible compromises
The canceled judicial reform returned the PP-DB to the starting position in its fight for its main cause. It will have to fight for it in small and slow steps or risk achieving it through a Grand National Assembly. The second, however, means making heavy compromises with other political forces, which would demand in return completely different changes to the constitution, which will be completely unacceptable to its voters, and there remains the risk that the coalition will be played again in the end. The timid attempts at cooperation at the end of this parliament cannot achieve any anti-Borisov-Peevski majority in the next one. Not only because there are too many ideological differences between PP-DB and “Vazrazhdane”, BSP and ITN, but because the anti-corruption that now brings them together cannot again be guaranteed to happen systematically through judicial reform. If for the achievement of partial results on this reform, the bet is a coalition government of the PP-DB with the Russophiles, the socialists, Dogan's dispatchers and Slavi Trifonov's people, then it would be too big and risky – many other concessions would have to be made that would be unacceptable to PP-DB voters. However, whether such a majority to limit the damage from the Constitutional Court's decision is even possible will be clearly seen this month – with that, whether the PP-DB will get support for the bill introduced by them, which prohibits the current Supreme Judicial Council with an expired mandate from electing the chief prosecutor and the president of the Supreme Administrative Court.
Borisov's resignation may be on the agenda
A permanent solution to the political crisis can hardly be found without forming a majority around GERB or PP-DB, or again both together. No matter how electorally "Vazrazhdane", BSP and any of the DPS grow (ITN cannot increase fivefold to become as big as it was 3 years ago), they cannot be leaders of coalitions, because they are ideologically self-isolated. and the three together would hardly achieve a majority by themselves. Therefore, if the node “Peevski" is not severed, the processes of cleavage can be expected to also be directed at his coalition partner, whom he has made dependent. Another Pyrrhic victory of GERB and an eighth failure with the mandate for the cabinet sooner or later will raise the question of Borisov's resignation at the very least, if Peevski's power is preserved after the elections and if the leader of GERB does not break away from him.
Do the parties have something to say to their voters?
The election campaign for the main still political forces – GERB and PP-DB, it seems that it will be difficult to impossible. GERB has nothing new to say to its voters, despite Borisov's promises that his party will talk about “what it will do, what it will upgrade with, what it will fulfill” – simply because if he cannot govern, he can do almost nothing of what he promises. PP-DB can tell their voters – did you see how right we were about Peevski in the previous campaign, but they too can offer nothing but more of the same. Even much less than the same because of the judicial reform cut by the Supreme Court. By building on what was achieved by the “Denkov“ they are unlikely to captivate many without having answered the main question – with whom they will rule. After the failure of the assembly and “learning the lessons”, it will be impossible for the PP-DB leaders to even allow a new assembly with GERB before the elections. It will be even more difficult for them to tell their supporters that they will now turn to “Revival” and BSP.
Thus, the voters will not receive a clear answer in the election campaign about the possible coalitions, and therefore also about the power in the next parliament, even more so because there is no longer a solid foundation on which governing coalitions could be built. This dooms the October vote to even lower turnout and a relative repeat of the current party picture in the next parliament. Unless the crisis gives birth to a strong protest vote and its new carriers appear. Or an extraordinary event happened that radically changed the balance of forces in some direction, such as GERB or PP-DB approaching an independent majority.
*** This comment expresses the personal opinion of the author and may not coincide with the positions of the Bulgarian editorial team and of DV as a whole.