Trump made concessions to Putin even before the peace talks in Ukraine began. Things are going well for Russia, observers say. Is US President Trump betraying Ukraine?
The United States has abruptly changed its course regarding the war in Ukraine. What are the assessments of the phone call between Trump and Putin, the subsequent statements of the American president, as well as the statements of the new US Secretary of Defense Peter Hegseth? Is this a victory for the Russian president, a defeat for Ukraine and a failure for the Europeans?
What concessions did Trump offer Putin?
According to professor at the Bundeswehr University Carlo Massala, this development of events means that Putin has won this war, as he has managed to get the Americans to withdraw from this military conflict.
The assessment of Claudia Mayor, a security expert at the Berlin-based "Science and Politics" Foundation, is more restrained: "Ultimately, Trump made concessions to Putin on the main issues even before the negotiations began. From the Russian point of view, things are not going badly at all: Trump put an end to the issue of Ukraine's membership in NATO, said that everything would remain as it is with the occupied territories, and that there would be no return to the situation before 2014, i.e. before the annexation of the Crimean peninsula by Russia.
Andres Umland, an analyst at the Stockholm Center for East European Studies, also has a similar opinion. He stated to DW that the statements of the US president and the US defense minister "largely correspond to what was previously proposed by Russia and satisfy Putin's requirements, at least partially".
Eastern Europe expert Jan Claes Behrends, professor of history at the University of Viadrina, in turn noted to DW that even the fact of mentioning Putin as a negotiator can be considered a success - given that he had no contacts with the previous US president, Joe Biden.
Is the US no longer an ally of Ukraine and Europe?
“For most of the Western world, Putin has effectively become persona non grata, they have ceased to perceive him as a partner for dialogue. If he really meets Trump in Saudi Arabia to discuss Ukraine, it will undoubtedly be a huge success for his policy," says Jan Claes Behrends.
"Ukraine should be worried most of all about not being able to actively participate in these negotiations, about being presented with fait accomplis. As will the Europeans," warns Claudia Mayor. According to her, Trump's conversation with Putin was "through the heads of the Ukrainians, as if Ukraine were no longer a sovereign state." The expert adds: "The impression is that the US is no longer an ally of Ukraine, but rather something of a mediator. This is a huge difference compared to the previous situation".
"Pro-Ukrainian countries in Europe can no longer rely on the US as an ally - this is evident from the statements of Trump and Hegseth", says Andreas Umland. However, according to him, it is too early to claim that the US has completely "dropped out" of Western support for Ukraine.
Umland believes that final conclusions about how much US policy has changed will only be possible after Washington begins to adopt specific strategic decisions and relevant laws. However, the expert suggests that in terms of foreign policy, Kiev will now have to focus its attention "on Europe and Ukraine's other non-European allies - such as Australia, Japan or South Korea". In any case, Europe faces a kind of stress test, says Umland. “But we do not yet know to what extent Europe is ready to take on this new responsibility.”
Will the Europeans be able to guarantee compliance with the ceasefire?
Claudia Mayor also points out that Europe now faces very serious challenges. “By raising the issue of the prospect of Ukraine's admission to NATO, Trump and his defense minister have effectively overturned the decisions of the last three summits of the Alliance. If the United States so easily abandons decisions that all allies have ultimately agreed to after difficult negotiations, what will this mean for all other American assurances given to Europe, to Ukraine, and to allies around the world?”.
At the same time, Major warns that if the United States, in accordance with Trump's plans, entrusts the Europeans with ensuring the ceasefire in Ukraine, which he intends to negotiate with Putin, the Europeans will have to think about how they could ensure this ceasefire. Since the ceasefire alone will not yet mean the achievement of lasting peace.
„As long as Russia questions the existence of an independent Ukraine, and as long as Russia has the military means to implement its intentions, any ceasefire will remain fragile. And there is a danger that it will only allow the Russian armed forces to take a breather, as happened with the Minsk agreements of 2014, after which in 2022 "a new attack followed", recalls the expert from the "Science and Politics" foundation.
She also explains what guaranteeing the Russian-Ukrainian ceasefire would actually mean: "For the Europeans, this would mean taking care of about 900 kilometers of the contact line, a 2,000-kilometer common border with Russia and an approximately 1,000-kilometer border with Belarus. This is a very ambitious military task. And if the Europeans do not cope with it, the danger of a new war in Europe will actually increase".
The different attitudes of Europeans to the war in Ukraine
The problem is that "Europeans" as such do not exist - they are divided into at least three groups according to their attitude to the war in Ukraine, says Professor Jan Claes Behrends. First of all, “these are the Baltic countries, the Scandinavian countries, Poland, probably the Czech Republic - they openly supported Ukraine from the very beginning and built their strategy in such a way as to help it defeat Putin”.
”The second group of countries are those who preferred to hide behind the US and did not want to provide serious support to Ukraine. I would include Germany, and probably France and Italy. And if we are to be honest, we cannot fail to mention Spain or Portugal, which seem to be completely indifferent to this conflict. Until a unified position is developed, it is pointless to talk about “Europeans”.
So, first of all, this European division must be overcome. "Perhaps it is time for the rest of Europe to join the positions of Poland, the Baltic and Scandinavian countries - the only ones that had a clear strategy in this conflict from the very beginning," says Jan Claes Behrends. According to him, the European countries do not yet have a new strategy.
At the same time, the historian does not rule out the possibility of a serious correction of the course taken by Washington. "It is important not to forget that Trump does not want to appear weak. And if he sees that the upcoming negotiations are perceived as a victory for Putin, the American position may change completely. The only thing we may know is that Donald Trump is unpredictable." The professor is convinced that tense weeks lie ahead, which will be especially difficult for Ukraine. It has yet to fight to have its voice heard in these negotiations.