The consulting company Roland Berger has calculated the development of the world car market for the next 15 years and predicts a halving of the demand for cars due to the stagnation of Western markets. This is what the Automotive Outlook 2040 report says.
„Sales volumes will increase sharply in the Global South and in China and will account for around 60% of the global market in 2040, but Western markets have already reached their peak in terms of new car sales, they say the analysts.
However, the global market is expected to grow by 1.1% annually over the next fifteen years, after growing by 2.4% between 2010 and 2019, indicating a general decline in demand for cars in recent years.
It should also be noted that the fastest growing market in the medium term will be the Indian one: here the growth of new registrations will be 4.2% per year.
Roland Berger experts predict that in 2040, sales of electric vehicles will make up 64 to 71% of the total volume, and hybrids will represent another 20%.
„Europe will be fully electrified in ten years if the EU follows its current rules, with BEVs accounting for 99% of new vehicle registrations. In China, BEV cars crossed the 50% mark in July 2024 and will reach a share of 70 to 85% by 2040, while in the US this indicator will be from 42 to 60%, and in the rest of the world - 50%, according to experts .
Hydrogen and synthetic fuels will play a very small role due to their “low efficiency and high cost”, the report stresses.