Information about the deployment of North Korean soldiers to Russia is still scarce and contradictory. But the expert on North Korea Rüdiger Frank points out to ARD that this scenario is not at all excluded: at the moment it can be assumed that North Korean fighters will actually join the war - in whatever form. “The important thing is for the West to wait with its reaction until the real facts become known, as the official form of participation is most important."
"This could turn into World War III"
For the German public-law media, Rüdiger Frank pointed out that if regular North Korean units officially intervened in the war, it would turn from a bilateral into an international conflict. “In this situation, it will be very difficult for NATO to resist Ukraine's insistence on sending ground troops to the Alliance."
The expert adds that from then on it will become inevitable to send German, French, British and American units to the war, and Russia will follow suit and could in turn attract other countries. Frank is adamant that this could turn into World War III, which hardly anyone wants. “I hope that the leadership in Moscow also understands this and it will not come to this option."
What gains the leadership in Pyongyang
When asked what Kim Jong Un expects from the eventual sending of soldiers to Ukraine, the expert says: “This is how Kim Jong Un gains great prestige in domestic politics. From the beginning of its existence, weak North Korea has always relied on Russia's help, and before that – of the Soviet Union. Reversing this circumstance would undoubtedly bring enormous satisfaction to the leadership in Pyongyang. The expert points out that in this way the international prestige of North Korea increases, and its positions are strengthened in the constant competition with South Korea.
At the same time, according to Frank, there are almost no risks for Kim Jong Un - for the dictatorship, the possible loss of soldiers is not of particular importance. “But Kim can expect the mentioned political gains, to which will be added great economic benefits."
Investments and access to the Russian market
As Frank recalled to ARD, South Korea gained a lot from sending 300,000 soldiers to the Vietnam War in the 1960s. Large funds flowed from the USA at that time, and a number of already very well-known concerns turned from small companies into global players. “A similar thing can happen with North Korea", the expert predicts.
He points out that it is about investments, access to the Russian market for arms and other goods, but also for supplies of Russian raw materials such as oil and gas for the market in North Korea, which is under international sanctions because of the North Korean nuclear program . “It can be about short-term aid in the field of food and consumer goods, but also about long-term support in the field of industry," the expert told ARD and recalled that North Korea wants to have nuclear power plants. Russia could help in this regard, from which the economic benefits for Pyongyang would be enormous. In addition, there may be a transfer of advanced military technology from Russia to North Korea, in connection with which countries in the region are particularly concerned.
"Beijing has other strategic plans"
But does all this also mean emancipation from China, ask ARD journalists. “North Korea has always tried to protect its own interests first. It is natural that it does not like being under almost complete foreign trade dependence on China. Therefore, the argument for emancipation is logical, but to think that enmity could arise between China and Russia because of the interests of North Korea would be too much," says Rüdiger Frank.
The expert also says that relations between North Korea and China have always been pragmatic. According to him, China's influence on North Korea has been deliberately exaggerated in the West. It is not known whether Kim's current move - the possible deployment of troops to Russia - was coordinated with China. And the Chinese are trying to stay out of the war in Ukraine as long as possible. "They have completely different strategic intentions," the expert points out. “In terms of geostrategy, the most important thing for them is the competition with the USA, as well as the question of what will happen to Taiwan and the South China Sea."
"China watches as they exhaust each other"
Rüdiger Frank's guess is that the Chinese will not take action until events in Ukraine and North Korean behavior begin to negatively affect their own interests. “Instead, they watch all their strategic adversaries and competitors exhaust each other."
Author: Eckart Aretz ARD