Moscow has lost access to its naval base in Tartus following the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime. The Kremlin has been unable to help its ally as it is focused on the war in Ukraine, according to a report by the UK Ministry of Defence published on X (Twitter).
According to the report, uncertainty over Russia's future presence and capabilities in the Eastern Mediterranean remains high. Following the collapse of the Assad regime, Russia's former Syrian ally, the permanent operational formation of the Russian naval forces in the Mediterranean currently lacks access to its naval base in Tartus for maintenance and logistical support. There is no similar alternative base in the region.
"The future of Russia's bases in Syria remains unclear as the country remains politically uncertain. However, Russia almost certainly wants to maintain its presence in the Mediterranean,“ the report states.
Latest Defence intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 21 January 2025.
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According to British intelligence, the ability to logistically support both its military and private military contractors in Africa, as well as limiting the reputational damage caused by the fall of the Assad regime, will be priorities for the Russian government.
However, Russia's intention to redirect any forces or equipment to potential alternative locations in North Africa remains unclear.
"The Russian leadership almost certainly considers the Ukrainian conflict to be its primary concern. "Russia's priority in the Ukrainian conflict has likely reduced Russia's ability and capacity to maintain the Assad regime in power," the British Ministry of Defense said.