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Master of the Art of the Deal? Analysts have strong doubts about Donald Trump's approach to Ukraine

Trump, who took office on January 20, has discussed the war separately with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and ordered US officials to begin talks to end it

Feb 13, 2025 11:10 34

Master of the Art of the Deal? Analysts have strong doubts about Donald Trump's approach to Ukraine  - 1

US President Donald Trump has promised a quick end to the war in Ukraine, but with the upcoming talks, the author of "The Art of the Deal" may have already made his task more difficult by sacrificing influence, Reuters reported.

Trump, who took office on Jan. 20, discussed the war separately with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and ordered U.S. officials to begin talks to end the nearly three-year war.

The phone calls came shortly after Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told Ukraine's military allies in Brussels that returning to Ukraine's pre-2014 borders - before Russia annexed Crimea - is unrealistic and that the US does not see Kiev's NATO membership as part of a solution.

He said US troops would not be part of any security presence in Ukraine.

Michael McFaul, a former US ambassador to Russia under President Barack Obama from 2012 to 2014, questioned the Trump administration's strategy towards Russia and Ukraine ahead of the upcoming talks.

"Why is the Trump administration giving Putin gifts - Ukrainian land and no NATO membership for Ukraine - before the talks even begin?" McFaul asked on the social media site X.

"I've negotiated with the Russians. You never give them anything for free."

Russia occupies about a fifth of Ukraine and has demanded that Kiev cede territory and become neutral in any peace deal. Ukraine has demanded that Russia withdraw from the occupied territories and wants NATO membership or equivalent security guarantees to prevent Moscow from attacking again.

Putin has repeatedly said that Russia is open to talks to end the conflict, but will still pursue its goals in Ukraine for Moscow to ensure the "demilitarization" and neutrality of the country.

While Trump administration officials have signaled for some time that they would not support all of Ukraine's goals, Hegseth and Trump's remarks have rattled European allies.

"No NATO membership, no boots on the ground? Sounds like abandoning Ukraine,” former Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis posted on X in response to Hegseth’s comments, which come ahead of the Munich Security Conference for political and military leaders later this week.

“The delegates are flying to Munich not to negotiate, but to give Zelensky the bad news.”

When asked later Wednesday whether Hegseth’s remarks had taken away U.S. influence, Trump told reporters: “I support Ukraine.”

Stephen Wertheim, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, described Hegseth’s comments as “a concession to reality.”

“Hegseth’s remark does not imply any desire on the part of the United States to recognize occupied Ukrainian territory as legitimately Russian,” he noted, adding that excluding NATO membership "signals to Russia that a realistic settlement is achievable".

Since the start of the war in February 2022, Trump's predecessor, President Joe Biden - along with European allies - has been adamant about Russia's withdrawal and has maintained the option of eventual NATO membership. The United States and Europe have given Ukraine tens of billions of dollars in military aid.

Russia has also been diplomatically isolated at the United Nations, where three-quarters of the 193-member General Assembly have repeatedly voted to condemn Moscow's invasion of Ukraine and demand that it withdraw its troops.

On Wednesday, the Kremlin said Putin and Trump had agreed to meet, and Putin had invited Trump to visit Moscow. Such a trip would be a major boost for the Russian president, who faces an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court for his actions in Ukraine.

Trump’s calls and Hegseth’s remarks coincided with a visit to Kiev by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Besant, who said the minerals deal between Kiev and Washington would provide Ukraine with a post-war “security shield.” Zelensky said he was ready to make a deal to open up the mineral resources to U.S. investment.

On Wednesday, Trump signaled that the minerals deal would provide security for U.S. funding for Ukraine, saying: “I told Biden, I said, ‘You have to ask for either a loan or some kind of collateral, like their oil and gas or something for the money.’”

According to John Herbst, the U.S. ambassador to Ukraine from 2003-2006 under President George W. Bush, the U.S. has surrendered some leverage with Russia, but Besant's visit to Kiev is a positive signal.

"Trump is talking about exchanging American weapons for Ukrainian minerals. So this is a means, according to Trump's logic, to send weapons to Ukraine," Herbst noted. "This is a big deal and a very positive thing."