Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered an unprovoked, full-scale invasion of Ukraine three years ago, aiming for victory within three days. Ukraine is not yet defeated, but backed by a coalition of allies including the United States and European countries, it has since successfully pushed Russian forces out of northern Ukraine and liberated significant territory in southern and northeastern Ukraine. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Syrsky announced on February 24 that Ukrainian forces had regained more than 50 percent of the territory that Russian forces had occupied since February 24, 2022. since
This is according to the latest analysis on Ukraine by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
ISW has confirmed that Ukrainian forces have regained 50.03 percent of their territory. Russian forces have made slow and gradual but steady progress in eastern Ukraine over the past year, driven by manpower, materiel and a slowdown in Western aid to Ukraine. Ukrainian forces are using their technological advantages to slow down Russian operations.
Ukraine continues to improve and upgrade its military capabilities, but international military support remains crucial. Defending Ukraine is a critical part of deterring broader Russian aggression against the West.
Russia has suffered massive losses in personnel and vehicles over the past three years. Syrsky reported that Russian forces have lost almost 870,000 personnel, including about 250,000 killed; over 10,100 tanks, 21,100 armored fighting vehicles and 23,300 artillery systems allegedly destroyed and damaged during the three years of Russia's full-scale invasion.
The British International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) recently estimated that Russia had lost around 14,000 tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers as of February 2022.
Russian opposition media outlets Meduza and Mediazona published a joint report on February 24, using the Russian Registry of Inheritance Deeds to estimate that up to 165,000 Russian servicemen had died during the three years of the war.
The UN General Assembly adopted a resolution supported by Ukraine and Europe on February 24 to mark the third anniversary. It recognizes Russia as the aggressor in the war, calls for a just peace in Ukraine, and supports the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine. The United States, Russia, Belarus, North Korea, and 14 other countries voted "against," while 93 countries supported it. China and Iran abstained.
The United States also abstained from voting on the second resolution, which it proposed after European countries changed its text to add "supporting the sovereignty, independence, unity, and territorial integrity" of Ukraine. The draft resolution before the European amendments does not recognize Russia as the aggressor and calls the war "the conflict between the Russian Federation and Ukraine".
Recent opinion polls show that Russians increasingly support Russia continuing the war until it achieves the complete surrender of Ukraine, but at the same time they are starting to feel the economic damage of the three years of war.
This calls into question Russian President Vladimir Putin's ability to balance the medium and long term. A recent survey conducted by the independent Russian opposition sociological organization Chronicles between February 5 and 13 showed that 46 percent of respondents do not support the withdrawal of Russian troops without Russia having achieved its military goals.
The number of respondents who do not support such a withdrawal by Russia has been steadily decreasing between February 2023 (47 percent) and September 2024. (31 percent), but then jumps back to February 2023 levels in February 2025.
Fifty-four percent of respondents in February 2025 said the war had negatively affected their daily lives. Thirty-six percent of respondents said their financial situation had worsened — an increase from 27 percent in September 2024. Thirty-six percent of respondents in February 2025 said the Russian government should prioritize military spending in the budget — a decrease from 43 percent in September 2024. The number of respondents who said the most important area for Russian spending was social spending increased from 38 percent in September 2024. to 48 percent in February 2025.
Russia is likely to face a number of material, labor, and economic problems within 18 months.
Russian state media largely ignored the third anniversary.
ISW recently estimated that it would take Russian forces more than 83 years to capture the remaining 80 percent of Ukraine at the current pace.
Putin’s recent statements dismissing the possibility of a peace deal with Ukraine are indications of his desire to drag out the war. Putin continues to signal to the Russian military and public that he will not end the war until Ukraine fully surrenders and that he has no interest in a negotiated peace deal that would require Russia to compromise on its long-standing military goals, despite Putin’s efforts to signal to Western leaders an interest in peace talks.
Kremlin officials officially rejected the possibility of a ceasefire on any terms other than the full surrender of Ukraine and the West on February 24, further underscoring Russia’s unwillingness to compromise during future peace talks. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on February 24 during a press conference in Turkey that Russia would stop military activity in Ukraine only when peace talks produce a "solid, stable result that suits Russia" and takes into account "realities" on the battlefield.
Lavrov noted that any peace agreement must include provisions prohibiting Ukraine from joining NATO in the future.
European leaders announced a series of new aid packages during their visit to Kiev on February 24 for the third anniversary. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced a new military aid package for Ukraine, consisting of 25 infantry fighting vehicles, two armored combat vehicles, an F-16 fighter landing system, four F-16 flight simulators, ammunition, drone camera components, and first aid kits.
Swedish officials recently announced plans to provide Ukraine with an unspecified number of Robotsystem-70 and Tridon Mk2 air defense systems, valued at approximately $113 million.
Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda announced plans to deliver an unspecified number of RBS-70 short-range air defense systems to Ukraine, and Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal announced a military aid package consisting of 10,000 artillery shells and 750,000 food packages. European Commission (EC) President Ursula von der Leyen announced an EU financial assistance package for Ukraine, estimated at €3.5 billion, which the EU will distribute in March 2025. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced that the UK would provide Ukraine with £4.5 billion in military aid. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez pledged that Spain would provide a new €1 billion military aid package as part of a wider 10-year bilateral security and defence agreement that Ukraine and Spain signed in May 2024.