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ISW: Kremlin seeks to compensate with diplomacy for the complete failure of its military ambitions in Ukraine

Russian officials directly involved in negotiations with the US continue to insist that any peace agreement to resolve the war in Ukraine must be based on Moscow's demands from 2021.

Feb 27, 2025 21:17 66

ISW: Kremlin seeks to compensate with diplomacy for the complete failure of its military ambitions in Ukraine  - 1

US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky plan to meet at the White House on February 28, possibly to sign a US-Ukrainian agreement on minerals. The draft agreement of the deal, published before the meeting, does not provide for American assistance or guarantees for the security of Ukraine.

This was commented by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Russian officials directly involved in the negotiations with the United States continue to insist that any peace agreement to resolve the war in Ukraine must be based on Russia's demands from 2021.

They also insist on the transfer to Russia of the territory that Ukrainian forces currently hold, which is home to major cities and over a million people. Russia is demanding that Ukraine hand over several major cities that Russian forces do not currently occupy and have no prospect of taking, by handing over over a million Ukrainians to Russia.

This concerns Zaporizhia (706 thousand people), Kherson (275 thousand people), Kramatorsk (147 thousand people), for example, which are in territory under Ukrainian control. Analysts note that the occupation of these territories would lead to a large-scale humanitarian catastrophe, as Russia would undertake repression, deportations, and forced assimilation, which it already uses extensively in the already occupied territories. The insistence through diplomatic channels, threats and propaganda that Russia receive these cities and territories continues despite the fact that the Russian army's offensive has effectively stopped - the army has been looking for significant losses in equipment and manpower for months.

Lavrov's rhetoric is primarily an attempt to achieve through negotiations what the Russian military cannot conquer by force, writes ISW.

The continued refusals of Lavrov and other Kremlin officials to a ceasefire and other conditions that US President Donald Trump and European leaders have identified as necessary to achieve lasting peace in Ukraine show that Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to be uninterested in meaningful negotiations and believes that he can achieve his military goals in the medium and long term.

Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk, and Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, Chasiv Yar, Kurakhovo, Velika Novosilka and Robotine.

Russian officials have suggested that the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB), the successor to the KGB, take control of all Russian pre-trial detention centers amid reports that the security service is responsible for a pre-trial detention center related to the mistreatment of Ukrainian prisoners of war.

The FSB controls the SIZO-2 pre-trial detention center in Taganrog, Rostov Oblast, which is alleged to be a center for the torture of Ukrainian prisoners of war.

The FSB is reported to have recruited former Russian civilians and military personnel into pre-trial detention centers and colonies for military operations in Ukraine.

In April 2006, Russia transferred control of pre-trial detention centers from the FSB to the Federal Penitentiary Service to meet requirements for membership in the Council of Europe.

However, the organization expelled Russia in March 2022. in response to the Kremlin's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.