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ISW: After the failure of the Volodymyr Zelensky - Donald Trump meeting - peace in Ukraine remains in the unclear future

ISW continues to assess that Kiev's support is in the vital interest of American national security, as well as the strong bilateral relationship between the United States and Ukraine

Mar 1, 2025 08:45 91

ISW: After the failure of the Volodymyr Zelensky - Donald Trump meeting - peace in Ukraine remains in the unclear future - 1

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and US President Donald Trump held a heated meeting at the White House on February 28. Zelensky noted that Russia has repeatedly violated previous ceasefire agreements.

This is written in the latest analysis on Ukraine by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Ukraine will not accept a ceasefire agreement without sufficient external security guarantees, as it will not be able to preserve its sovereignty and prevent war in Europe in the long term. Zelensky said that Russian strikes have not completely destroyed Ukraine, it is "alive" and continues to defend itself against aggression. Zelensky reiterated that no country wants to end the war more than Ukraine and that any talks to end the war will be between the United States and Europe. Trump declined to comment on the possibility of future U.S. security guarantees for Ukraine and the deployment of U.S. troops in Ukraine. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Zelensky to leave the White House after the meeting, and the White House canceled an afternoon press conference and signing of the U.S.-Ukraine minerals deal.

ISW continues to assess that supporting Ukraine is in the vital interest of U.S. national security, as well as the strong bilateral relationship between the United States and Ukraine.

Russia continues to demonstrate deepening relations with U.S. adversaries despite Russian President Vladimir Putin’s attempts to demonstrate Russia’s openness to talks with the United States.

Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu met separately with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing on February 28 to discuss bilateral security and international and regional issues.

Shoigu and Xi also stressed the need to continue coordinating efforts in key international platforms, including the BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), and diplomatic efforts to "resolve the Ukrainian crisis".

Shoigu said that relations between Russia and China had reached "unprecedented" heights, and Russian state media highlighted Xi's statements and praise from Chinese Foreign Ministry (MFA) spokesman Lin Jian for the close bilateral relations.

Russian Deputy Security Council Chairman and Chairman of the ruling United Russia party Dmitry Medvedev met with North Korean Workers' Party Central Committee member Ri Hee-yong on February 26 in Moscow to express United Russia's desire for "closer cooperation and expanding agreements and exchanges in all areas". Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Ri on February 27, but the Kremlin statement did not provide further details about the meeting.

Representatives of the Kursk Oblast Chamber of Commerce signed a cooperation agreement with the Pyongyang Chamber of Commerce on February 27 to develop bilateral economic ties and expand opportunities for joint production between Kursk Oblast and North Korean enterprises.

The agreement also includes trade and economic ties; cooperation in industry, agriculture and processing; and joint logistics projects. Russia continues to fight against adversaries of the United States, emphasizing the importance of strengthening and supporting U.S. allies and partners, including Ukraine.

Ukrainian officials are stepping up cooperation with South Korea amid deepening ties between Russia and North Korea and recent reports of a new wave of North Korean troop deployments in the Kursk Oblast. Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Serhiy Boev met with a South Korean delegation led by National Assembly member Yu Yong-won in Kyiv on February 28 to discuss bilateral relations between Ukraine and South Korea and North Korea's involvement in Russia's war against Ukraine.

The delegations discussed exchanging experience in the defense industry, and Yu expressed interest in organizing a joint seminar between Ukrainian and South Korean defense manufacturers. The meeting follows a recent South Korean report that North Korean forces have deployed 1,000 to 3,000 personnel to the Kursk region between January and February 2025 to support Russia's military efforts against Ukraine.

The head of the Main Directorate of Military Intelligence of Ukraine (GUR), Lieutenant General Kirill Budanov, stressed on February 24 that North Korean forces are gaining valuable combat experience and improving their weapons systems while fighting in the Kursk region and cooperating with Russia.

Ukrainian forces have struck Russian military assets in the nearby rear in occupied Ukraine. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that on the night of February 27-28, Ukrainian forces struck a Russian ammunition depot containing thermobaric artillery ammunition near occupied Selidove, Donetsk Oblast.

Geolocated footage published on February 28 shows a burning facility and secondary explosions in eastern Selidove.

The Main Directorate of Military Intelligence (GUR) of Ukraine and the Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces struck a forward command post of the Russian 14th Army Corps (AK) (Leningrad Military District) near occupied Ivanovka, Kherson Oblast, and a drone control point of the Russian 503rd Motorized Rifle Regiment (19th Motorized Rifle Division, 58th Combined Arms). Armament Army, Southern Military District near occupied Nesteryanka (southwest of Origov), Zaporizhia Oblast on February 26.

The Ukrainian General Staff reported that on the night of February 27-28, Ukrainian forces also struck the Ilsky oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai. Previously, Ukrainian forces struck the Ilsky oil refinery on February 9 and 17.

The Russian Foreign Ministry (MFA) reported on February 28 that the United States had approved the appointment of the current director of the MFA's North American Department, Alexander Darchiev, as Russia's ambassador to the United States.

Darchiev headed the Russian delegation to the US-Russia bilateral talks on February 27 in Istanbul, Turkey, and his recent appointment indicates that he is likely to continue to be a key member of any future US-Russia bilateral engagements.